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TexPrep

TEOTWAWKI events and how they happen

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As a new Prepper I want to be as prepared as I can for each event and I would like as much time to prepare as I can. An article about which TEOTWAWKI triggering event is most likely to happen in the next year, next 3 years, 5 years ect. would be great information.

 

Example might be: In the next year what event (s) are most likely to cause TEOTWAWKI? Financial Collapse cause by Europe?, Natural non man made event such as Solar Flares causing world wide power-grid outage? Man made Power outage caused by terrorist? EMP? Nuclear War?

 

Of course anything can happen but it would be interesting to see some articles on the subject.

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TexPrep: Interesting proposal. I guess we can all be as paranoid as we can afford to be. I keep clinging on to an eventual recovery by some form of the government, aka Hurricane Katrina. But it is the short stroke until that occurs that is bothersome.

 

Back in about 1980 I wrote the text of a survival guns book that I never could get published. This was during the threat of nuclear, biological or chemical SHTF. That threat pretty much relaxed when the wall went down. All those containers of water, chem suits, and emergency supplies are gone now. The threat never materialized.

 

Now here we are 30 years later worried about dirty bombs, Iran's nuclear capability, illegals coming across the borders north and south bringing in no telling what. Al Queda is far from contained. Cells may still be your next door neighbor for all we know. I suppose paranoia is alive and well in the survival movement.

 

I hope our preps never get tested unless it is for a natural disaster which is an eventual sure event. It could be a hurricane, tropical storm, tornado, flood, drought, fuel shortage, food shortage, etc. For that we can continue to prep.

 

You may be Cody Lunden's cousin and ready to live out in the wilderness for the rest of your life while the mushroom cloud glows on the horizon, but frankly some of us are not able to do that. For the masses survival of a close by dirty suitcase bomb is the end. I live 60 miles from a nuclear reactor. If it were to get hit by some missile from somewhere, I doubt we locals would survival no matter how many cans of chili I stocked up on. But, can I outlast 2-3 days, a week, a month without power, water? That is what I am prepping for, things that I can manage in the short frame.

 

The ultimate SHTF event could happen at any moment. It could be a world event, a national economic collapse, a local Flash Mob gig gone bad, a union worker strike, or a random series of robberies in your neighborhood. I think the answer for each prepper is to work toward surviving events that are realistically manageable. Some of them simply are not for the majority of us.

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I like the article idea but it would be a multi-parter for sure. There would be just to much break down of every situation to cram it into one article and articles on all of the improbable scenarios would be fun to write. In the mean time look in to disasters that have historically happened in your area, crime maps and potential major disasters. I know that I live on the high ground in the middle of a huge flood plane if the levies ever broke I might be ankle deep in water however if the dam 30 miles to the west broke it would be ten times worse then Katrina. By assessing what has happened in the past and potential hazards in the area you should start getting a clearer picture of what to prep for.

Edited by Autonomous

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All you can reasonable forcast is a man made / caused event. Here are two very likely ones and one unlikely:

 

(i) Eurpoe cannot reach a settlement and things get real bad there and consumer confidence here goes to zero. Problem with Europe is Bank's are dependent on consumer's repaying loans from pension and goverment retirement income. If these get big cuts the ripple effect would be felt over here as Eurpoean's quit paying things like their Amex or Capital One card bill and you get the snowball effect of a credit crunch on the consumer.

 

(ii) The election in 2012. So much riding on this one. If current administration gets reelected then they can push for further implimentation of programs congress is currently not funding. Item (i) will be big on this topic but I see this election as so pivitol in the direction of the US that the Rep. and Dem. will do "anything".

 

(iii) Major act of terror. Unless it hits D.C I dont see this as big concern b/c US is such a vast nation and it would need to be something of Biblical porportion to get the whole country upside down.

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aside from man made events this one kinda struck my eye, in 2006 there was a warning issued out by NASA that a CME(coronal mass ejection) from the sun that would hit in the near future then in 2010 they resent the warning saying look this thing will hit in 2012 or 2013.

in 1959(maybe 1859 i dont remember) i believe canada was hit by a small CME and it cut power to 100 of thousands of people for 9 hours they said the CME overloaded the wires so bad they melted. essentially what this thing is, is a GIANT plasma ball that hits our magnetic field and supposedly this one flip whichever part of the field it hits to the other side and overload power plants and shut down the gird worldwide.

obviously we know no one can accurately predict the coming of such a giant sun driven event but still quite possible.

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It really can happen at anytime, but the closer we get to the future the more risky it is, because the more we advance, the more oil we burn and more we harm the planet, and thats what will probably doom us.

 

I would be extremely surprised if teotwawki happened in 30+ years. I'm guessing it will start in about 8 years and be very serious in about 10. Unless 2012 happens....

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I am not sure what would be the more likely TEOTWAWKI. could be a rogue asteroid we dont see. Could be a big misunderstanding between nuclear armed countries. Could be a major collapse of the financial market. Could be a sudden drying up of oil reserves world wide. Could be a simple "We are sick of this, and not going to take it anymore" from the people. Whatever it may be, I am hedging that the "experts" will not see it coming, and it will truly be a surprise. it would really suck, if we all prepared for a massive financial/social collapse, only to be invaded by extraterrestrials, or have the beginnings of a runaway global warming event. My bet is on a economic collapse brought about by wealth distribution and not enough demand for produced goods. Maybe throw in an increase in oil prices on the verge of 1000%, and we can have a good old fashioned socioeconomic collapse.

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Who's to guess what the "event" will be.

The 99% "Useful Idiots" take over

Obama wins again

Meteor/Asteriod

Financial Collapse (foreign and/or domestic)

Solar EMP

Nuclear EMP

Pathogens

Anyone notice the HUGE increase in tectonic activity in the past few years? Earthquakes AND volcanoes.

and of course the Zombie Apocalypse.

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Maybe Yellowstone is gonna go off.... That would really put a crimp in your day. Especially if you lived next door (which would be anywhere within say, 400 miles). or, maybe, the volcano in Mexico City. I find it interesting as well all the tectonic activity we are seeing as of late. If the midwest got hi hard, say St, Louis, or Chicago, there would be thousands of casualties. I don't think any of the buildings are made to take an earthquake. Maybe we are all looking in the wrong direction, and should be paying more attention to good ole mother earth. though this raises an interesting talking point, what would you do if Yellowstone erupted? How would you take on surviving that monster?

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I think we can count on it being a "Black Swan" event. Something that is (should have been) foreseen but was not foreseen. What I fear most is a global pandemic. I see the coming financial disaster in Europe expanding to encompass the rest of the world. At that point, the firewalls against disease will collapse. The resistant strains of bacteria and viruses will explode. Perhaps terrorism or just incompetence at the various centers or just bad luck, the bugs will be back. Pandemic survival may well be the toughest, longest lasting TEOTWAWKI event possible.

Other things are always possible but I think those are TSHTF events. I think TEOTWAWKI is going to come from the pandemic.

I pray to God I'm wrong.

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Maybe Yellowstone is gonna go off.... though this raises an interesting talking point, what would you do if Yellowstone erupted? How would you take on surviving that monster?

Most would not survive.

http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.earthmountainview.com/yellowstone/YellowstoneFalloutAshBed.gif&imgrefurl=http://www.earthmountainview.com/yellowstone/yellowstone.htm&h=377&w=580&sz=94&tbnid=lbIaARCYGu6ExM:&tbnh=90&tbnw=138&zoom=1&docid=WIYoMi_PgJXe7M&hl=en&sa=X&ei=4fW7TtSZJ4Sc2AWEsNS9Bw&sqi=2&ved=0CDIQ9QEwAA&dur=1384

for a map of the past ash falls. A full blown super volcano, even if not Yellowstone, could spell a decade or more of "nuclear winter". If it is on the "low end"(is that a valid description when talking about super volcanoes?) of the scale and if you survive the initial ash fall, you might have a shot at making it. If it is at the high end of the eruption scale, who knows. In any event, we are facing a major extinction level event. Part of the problem is that the places that make sense for surviving government issues are within the blast radius of Yellowstone. Since we have never seen a super eruption (thank God) we don't know what the precursors are. Do we get warning or just BANG - YOU'RE DEAD! Krakatoa (huge but not a super eruption) gave warning. If Yellowstone does AND we recognize it then we have some shot. But if you check the maps, there is a huge variation in the strength of the eruptions so who knows. It will pop again, just like the volcano in the Canary Islands will slough off into the ocean and create a monster tsunami. Going to happen, just when, how bad, and will we get warning?

Mother Nature, Gia, Earth Mother, whoever is the earth goddess in vogue today is NOT your friend. She really, truly, sincerely wants you dead. Don't make it easy for her.

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Pandemic would be terrible all it would really take is a break down of medical system paired with sewage, water and garbage collection going out and you have for piles of human waste, people not showering or washing hands and trash piling up and rotting and rodent populations should explode with the additional garbage. And all of this could happen if we ran out of gas for a few months. There's unforeseen side effects for you.

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If Yellowstone went off, I don't think we would make it. i remember seeing a show that talked about that very scenario. they were talking about four foot of ash almost to ohio. That, would terribly suck. though, a pandemic would be worse in alot of ways. I would much rather face mother nature in all her nasty glory, then her ninja assassins of phleminess. Better to die on my feet looking for food, than in bed choking on my own sputim. If it were a pandemic, I would segregate my family from anyone and everyone. At least initially. Its the only way to be sure.

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Mike,

Check out the ash fall maps for Yellowstone. If it is like the last eruption, yep, 4 ft in Ohio. That's be tough and remember that the ash is actually a glass and would carve up your lungs. Pneumonia will be rampant! if it is like the the one before the last one, everything east of the Mississippi should survive well enough. Of course the "nuclear winter" effects will be devastating for the entire planet. Houston is on the edge of a big one, reasonably OK for a smaller (seems strange to use that word with a super eruption) blast. A lot depends on jet streams, weather systems (and the volcano will alter both) and things like rainfall. A hurricane could change everything for example.

As to pandemics, yep, I hate that thought but I see it as a result of almost ANY TEOTWAWKI event. The bugs will get out and then, God help us.

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Mike, I would like to run with your question because I live in the midwest and it is something I have started to think about lately. Acutally if yellowstone went off then it wouldn't really matter where I lived because it would be a nation wide and even worldwide event if it is as large as they predict. If the midwest gets taken out, in terms of no more farming than there goes production of a lot of products and of course food, so in that sense it would be very hard to escape. I believe the last time I looked I live just outside of the immeidate danger zone but was definilty within the ash fall out area. Seeing as foood and water would be almost impossible to get after this event I would say these two items would be the best to stock up if you are prepping for this event and live within the country.

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