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A Carrington event was named after the solar superstorm that hit Earth over a hundred years ago, at this time Americas power grid was even more primitive then it is today. The energy carried by the event hit Americas grid, electrocuting telephone operators and disrupting radios and electronics. What if, a second Carrington Event were to happen in our near future? 160 years is a long time and scientists are unsure of an exact cycle since it's only been recorded happening once. Next year, 2013, we peak in our solar cycle and will be experiencing the most powerful solar storms of the decade. Whats concerning is not the solar flares ability to knock out a nations entire power grid, whats concerning is what relies on the power grid. Nuclear reactors all over the world have a symbiotic relationship with the grid, 1. They feed power to the grid, 2. They require power from the grid to function. If the grid were to collapse the backup generators have 3 days of diesel to stay running. Is that enough time to shut down a nuclear reactor? What if those generators would need to be refueled, the nation would be in chaos, resupplying those generators to prevent a meltdown would be difficult. But even if the United States could keep ALL of its nuclear power plants under control, what about the hundreds of others all around the globe?? A nuclear holocaust doesn't have to happen in the form of a mushroom cloud. What are your thoughts?

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I'd just like to point out that its the peak of one cycle. There have been many others and nothing has happened. I'm hoping this continues.

 

Otherwise, I'm prepping as best I can. Nothing else I can do really.

 

Do I think it will be TEOTWAWKI if an EMP from a solar flare hits us? Shit would probably get pretty bad for a while, but if there is anything I have learned on my life on earth, its that the human will and ability to adapt is astounding. We will be okay. We may suffer. But we'll be okay.

 

Thats my 2cents worth.

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A Carrington event was named after the solar superstorm that hit Earth over a hundred years ago, at this time Americas power grid was even more primitive then it is today. The energy carried by the event hit Americas grid, electrocuting telephone operators and disrupting radios and electronics. What if, a second Carrington Event were to happen in our near future? 160 years is a long time and scientists are unsure of an exact cycle since it's only been recorded happening once. Next year, 2013, we peak in our solar cycle and will be experiencing the most powerful solar storms of the decade. Whats concerning is not the solar flares ability to knock out a nations entire power grid, whats concerning is what relies on the power grid. Nuclear reactors all over the world have a symbiotic relationship with the grid, 1. They feed power to the grid, 2. They require power from the grid to function. If the grid were to collapse the backup generators have 3 days of diesel to stay running. Is that enough time to shut down a nuclear reactor? What if those generators would need to be refueled, the nation would be in chaos, resupplying those generators to prevent a meltdown would be difficult. But even if the United States could keep ALL of its nuclear power plants under control, what about the hundreds of others all around the globe?? A nuclear holocaust doesn't have to happen in the form of a mushroom cloud. What are your thoughts?

 

Rapture,

You have the right idea but some bad facts. There was no radio and telephone grid in 1859. this was Antebellum America, the South and North had not yet started shooting at each other. The shock hazard came from telegraph lines, railroad tracks metal supports etc. There was no power grid. Most American reactor sites can last a week or so without the grid. The main damage to the grid will be the loss of the massive transformers on the grid. For a decent writeup and plans to mitigate read:

 

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2010/26oct_solarshield/

 

From that website:

 

A large-scale blackout could last a long time, mainly due to transformer damage. As the National Academy report notes, "these multi-ton apparatus cannot be repaired in the field, and if damaged in this manner they need to be replaced with new units which have lead times of 12 months or more."

 

Note that the 12 month lead time for the massive transformers is based on the grid being available! You need power to quickly (12 months) make new transformers. Without the grid, who knows?

 

There are 3 grids in the US.

post-6-13851497757271_thumb.jpg

The Texas grid is the most self-sufficient and has the fewest number of transformers.The east and west coast grids are the most vulnerable.

The critical thing for most nuke sites is the spent rod cooling system. These things must have cooling water or else. The Japanese reactors' problems started in the cooling pools. These spent fuel rods are still HOT, thermally and radioactively, and without cooling they will cause fires and explosions.

The problem will be providing diesel fuel to these plants (some no longer active but still cooling spent rods) for the 5 or more years it takes to get the grid back. Diesel that will be hard to come by and as valuable as gold. Transporting that fuel, if possible, will require armed escorts. There is NO choice concerning the fuel rods after an event. If they do not cool, they will go. They should be in secure underground containment facilities but politics has made that impossible up until now.

 

As to the probability of a Carrington event, NASA says about every 100 years but that is a SWAG (Somebody's Wild A** Guess). We had a near miss in the 80's with the grid in Canada. The sun spews Carrington level CME's (Coronal Mass Ejection) fairly often. The good news is that they are not pointed to where the earth will be when they get to the earth's orbit. Unless you follow solar physics (I'm a nerd, I like it, and it is part of my job) you would never know of the events that are a clean miss. We have no idea if there were any Carrington events prior to 1859 as we had no way to figure it out. A non-electrical society doesn't know about it. If Carrington had not been doing solar astronomy, we would not know WHAT caused the problems when the CME hit. Carrington drew some really shrewd conclusions, connected the dots and now we know.

 

Sorry for the mild dissertation; I'm interested in this stuff and tend to ramble on.

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Capt. Bart

I was in a meeting a few months ago where where a NASA suit breifed that if a level 4 event occured that getting the grid up could take as long as 20 + years with your in roads to that angency could you confim directly with the someone in the helios lab that estimate

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exit: here is some more information

 

There is an article on the Carrington Event (the scientific journals call it the Carrington Super Flare) published in the July 28, 2008 edition of the Scientific American (SA). A synopsis of that article follows:

• The solar superstorm of 1859 was the fiercest ever recorded. Auroras filled the sky as far south as the Caribbean, magnetic compasses went haywire and telegraph systems failed.

• Ice cores suggest that such a blast of solar particles happens only once every 500 years, but even the storms every 50 years could fry satellites, jam radios and cause coast-to-coast blackouts.

• The cost of such an event justifies more systematic solar monitoring and beefier protection for satellites and the power grid.

 

It turns out that the Carrington Event, which occurred on Thursday, September 1, 1859, was the second part of a giant solar storm (okay Capt Bart – a Coronal Mass Ejection or CME). The first CME was Sunday, August 28, 1859; just four days earlier and observed in the Kew Observatory magnetometer (in greater London) record by Balfour Stewart. From the SA article, on Sunday night “…the phantom shapes of the auroras could already be seen overhead. From Maine to the tip of Florida, vivid curtains of light took the skies. Startled Cubans saw the auroras directly overhead; ships’ logs near the equator described crimson lights reaching halfway to the zenith. Many people thought their cities had caught fire. Scientific instruments around the world, patiently recording minute changes in Earth’s magnetism, suddenly shot off scale, and spurious electric currents surged into the world’s telegraph systems. In Baltimore telegraph operators labored from 8 p.m. until 10 a.m. the next day to transmit a mere 400-word press report.”

 

Just before noon on Thursday, Carrington “…witnessed an intense white light flash from two locations within the sunspot group...” which lasted 5 minutes. Then, seventeen hours later, “…a second wave of auroras turned night to day as far south as Panama. People could read the newspaper by their crimson and green light. Gold miners in the Rocky Mountains woke up and ate breakfast at 1 a.m., thinking the sun had risen on a cloudy day. Telegraph systems became unusable across Europe and North America.”

 

Here’s a timeline from a follow-up to the SA article that may help put this solar superstorm in perspective:

• August 26 - Large sunspot group appears near longitude 55 degrees west on the sun.

• August 26 - First Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) possibly launched. The 1859 event involved two CMEs, and the second moved faster because the first had cleared its way.

• August 28 - The main body of plasma takes hours or days to reach Earth, But an advance blast of energetic particles hits almost immediately. CME arrives at Earth with a glancing blow because of the solar longitude of its source; its magnetic orientation is northward.

• August 28 07:30 UTC - Greenwich Magnetic Observatory detects a disturbance, signaling compression of the magnetosphere.

• August 28 22:55 UTC - Main storm phase begins, with large magnetic disturbances, telegraphic disruptions and auroral sightings. Auroral sightings are recorded as far south as the Caribbean.

• August 30 Geomagnetic disturbances and auroral sightings from first CME end.

• September 1 11:15 UTC - Astronomer Richard C. Carrington, among others, sights a white-light flare on the sun; the large sunspot group has rotated to longitude 12 degrees west.

• September 2 05:00 UTC - Greenwich and Kew magnetic observatories detect disturbances followed immediately by geomagnetic chaos; second CME arrives at Earth within 17.5 hours, traveling at 2,380 kilometers per second with southward magnetic orientation; auroras appear as far south as Venezuela.

• September 3 & 4 - Main phase of geomagnetic disturbances from second CME ends; scattered auroral sightings continue, but with diminishing intensity.

 

The take away is that they had over three days warning back in 1859. Unfortunately, they didn't know what the warnin was. We now know what to look for and have had time to prepare for it. Are you ready?

 

In closing it was Carrington who spotted the second solar superflare¸ Stewart at the Kew observatory who recorded the magnetic disturbances caused by it, and Elias Loomis, an American mathematician, who tied it all together and published a series of nine papers in the American Journal of Science, November 1859 thru July 1862.

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Any way it goes no one is prepared

 

the way our logistics chain is spread out one needs to remember that the side of the world

facing the "event" will be impacted and to a degree not everything in that portion will be hit

with equal intensity and depending on the angle of the earth to the sun blah blah blah

wrap effect in other words no one can predict all and to what extent some areas will be devastated

and other areas will bounce back in a few months or less...

 

in other words lets all take a moment to ask God for it to hit somewhere other than here and not in

the winter having a couple of cords of firewood off the ground so it does not rot is a good thing

and a fireplace or stove also a bar-b-q pit is just good sense.

 

and as I have listed hand tools non electric even a 2 month lack of regular power is a horrible

thought to contemplate as seen in Bosnia and Serbia during the unrest there many such events have

made power intermittent.

 

underground is the only place to survive in a constant temp

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exit: here is some more information[/Quote]

 

Thanks Rob! Always appreciated!

 

The take away is that they had over three days warning back in 1859. Unfortunately, they didn't know what the warnin was. We now know what to look for and have had time to prepare for it. Are you ready?

 

In closing it was Carrington who spotted the second solar superflare¸ Stewart at the Kew observatory who recorded the magnetic disturbances caused by it, and Elias Loomis, an American mathematician, who tied it all together and published a series of nine papers in the American Journal of Science, November 1859 thru July 1862.

 

Unfortunately, I'm nowhere near ready. Hell... I pray I never need to be in my life time. I will say that I have begun preparing though. Its only been a month since I started and I already feel 10x more prepared....not so much because of equipment I've purchased...but because I know what to expect and have a half-way decent plan. Still working on it!

 

So what you're saying is that when we first get hit we can possibly expect a 2nd CME which will be much more powerful? Or was that an isolated event?

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exit: The 1859 super storm double whammy seems like it was an isolated event. The point I was trying to make was that when (not if) there is another CME the size of the Carrington super flare we'll have time to get the word out. The time (whether it be hours or a few days) should give us time to protect our sensitive electronic equipment if we are prepared. I have made quite a few Faraday cages and shields that I think will take me just minutes to put into use. Of course if I'm at work or on travel that complicates things. But the point is - get prepared, think out possible scenarios and potential courses of action before you need them.

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August 28 - The main body of plasma takes hours or days to reach Earth, But an advance blast of energetic particles hits almost immediately. CME arrives at Earth with a glancing blow because of the solar longitude of its source; its magnetic orientation is northward.

 

Note the comment on the magnetic orientation. The first event was oriented in the same direction as the Earth's magnetic field and the field provided maximum protection from the shock wave. The second wave was oriented south, minimizing the protection of the Earth's magnetic field. An additional thing to check, every morning at http://www.spaceweather.com/ (I told you I'm a geek).

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Capt. Bart

I was in a meeting a few months ago where where a NASA suit breifed that if a level 4 event occured that getting the grid up could take as long as 20 + years with your in roads to that angency could you confim directly with the someone in the helios lab that estimate

 

That was a personal opinion based on information I don't have. The recovery time for the manufacture of large transformers without the grid is "more than 5 years". If there is a better estimate, I do not have access to it.

 

Based on information I can glean from public sources, I think decades more than years for the total grid. Assuming that they get the power to the manufacturing facility first, it is 12 months per transformer and there are over 300 transformers in the US alone

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Solar-Storm-Threatening-Power-Grids-%E2%80%93-Yet-no-Action-Taken-to-Implement-Defences.html

so even if they can construct 5 in parallel we're talking 60 years. That isn't the only thing. There are 200,000 plus miles of transmission lines in the US. They would have to be checked and repaired before power comes back.

 

Best case scenario, we get 48 hours notice that something is coming and it's likely to be bad. About 30 minutes before the CME hits earth we learn from satellite data how big the event is, the utilities are notified and they take the grids down. With the transformers isolated from that 200,000 miles worth of antennas they have a chance to survive. If they do, then verifying the wire is OK and the grid can start to come back up. A cold start into a black grid has never been done. Even the 1989 Canada outage (a near miss by a Carrington level CME) involved a start into a grid that was still up and running. If the whole hemisphere is black is a problem we've never had to solve.

 

If I get advanced notice (and I do check, daily) one of the things to do is to open every breaker into your house. That gets you off the main line and keeps the lines inside the house at the shortest length. It may make no difference but in a marginal case I may avoid a house fire.

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Capt Bart: Opening house breakers is great advice. That just went on my check-list I keep next to my BOB. Thx

 

Would flipping the one main breaker accomplish the same thing or does each one need to be flipped? And, I assume that this MAY work for a Carrington Event but not so much for an EMP?

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With a Carrington Event it can't hit the entire planet right? I mean only one side of the earth is facing the sun at a time. If the above statement is true and I don't know enough about Carrington events to know then 5 year recovery time is possible because we have the other side of the world's production to lean on. I'm terrified how much basic composites would run for but 5 years is possible to have some of the grid running again and technology creeping back into our lives.

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Would flipping the one main breaker accomplish the same thing or does each one need to be flipped? And, I assume that this MAY work for a Carrington Event but not so much for an EMP?

 

Mike,

It would help in either case. The problem with the EMP (I assume you mean a terrorist type event) is that you won't have any warning. The idea is the long lines leading into your house act as an antenna for the EMP - cutting off that antenna is doing what I do to my radio antennas when thunderstorms are in the area. By getting them away from the radios and connected to ground I keep the antenna from bringing a large voltage into the house. That brings up a point:

 

WARNING

 

IF YOU ARE NEW TO RADIO - THE ANTENNAS CAN BUILD UP DANGEROUS POWER LEVELS IN THE PRESENCE OF LIGHTENING OR DUST STORMS. GROUND THEM BEFORE THE EVENT!

 

OK, the problem is that a disconnected antenna is basically a capacitor when not grounded. It can build huge static charges in dry, moving air. In addition, lightening is a 'white noise' generator and a bolt of lightening (even cloud to cloud) puts out a huge pulse. A strike within 10 miles is capable of inducing dangerous surges in things like antennas. I once got quite a shock while disconnecting an antenna when a front was approaching. It was still 15 miles or so off but it was close enough to produce a bit of an RF burn.

 

Flipping the main breakers helps. In fact if you have plans to run a generator into your house wiring in the event of power outages you must open those breakers to protect your house when power comes back on and the power company workers who are working on the lines. If you're putting power into house wiring and don't open the breakers, your generator could electrocute a lineman working on getting the system back - you're sending power into the part of the grid you can see.

 

The point in opening the interior breakers is to shorten the amount of wire that is connected together. You get a half dozen 100 foot long antennas rather than a single 600 foot long array. (OK, not absolutely correct numbers, I didn't take time to figure out the patterns, but it conveys the idea).

 

The main breaker(s) is the most critical. The others help but are not as big a contributor to safety.

Edited by Capt Bart
added breaker discussion

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With a Carrington Event it can't hit the entire planet right? I mean only one side of the earth is facing the sun at a time. If the above statement is true and I don't know enough about Carrington events to know then 5 year recovery time is possible because we have the other side of the world's production to lean on. I'm terrified how much basic composites would run for but 5 years is possible to have some of the grid running again and technology creeping back into our lives.

 

A Carrington Event works by compressing the earth's B field (B = magnetic). It is estimated that the Carrington event forced the magnetic field to collapse all the way to the planet's surface. The field then rebounded once the CME had passed and oscillated for a bit as it returned to normal. This much disturbance will effect the entire planet. It was detected and measure in both Europe and the US.

 

The effects will be much worse on the sun side, but my gut feel is that even the night side will see the effects. Not as strong, and perhaps would provide a source for producing what was needed for recovery.

 

It is absolutely possible, perhaps probable, that local grids will be back up more quickly. What will be lacking is the ability to load share and transmit power over large distance. Remember as well, we've gone to 'smart' grids. My 'smart' meter is a solid state controller. Those devices are gone. Just getting the generators up and running won't bring the grid back until the solid state stuff is replace. It is a large, complex problem, mistakes can do more damage to an already impaired system.

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I solved my generator problem

 

I have a separate box with separate circuits only one for each room

with no intention of running the whole house as it is not possible.

 

people who have a whole home system will find how inflexible it will be

and not energy efficient and if it is connected as soon as the grid goes

down the generator will kick in and then it will be damaged, as who will be

home or know what is happening at the moment it does as information infrastructure

will be damaged or out completely.

the coronal effects will alter the

ionosphere and satellites in orbit will have been effected and land lines

based on max of 60 volts may not function.

It has been stated we are part of a SMART GRID stupidest thing ever, first

it requires less employees great in our situation and electronic control can be

overtaken by enemy government supported hackers this has been part of every

intelligence briefing since 1997 and ignored just like information that suicidal

groups could use our transportation infrastructure against us.

 

The most plausible scenario is staring us in the face and our nation refuses to see

it is a man made Carrington event I will not be specific here but it seems very

obvious to me.

 

I think everyone who has read my posts finds me sometimes cryptic it is for very good

reason I do not want to give information that could be used,

it is irresponsible and unnecessary because we can infer and anyone can research

threats on the net without giving away specifics we all love to flaunt our knowledge

and in the survival and many other topics it is great but in a few areas we need to

use caution in putting forth too much specific information.

 

It appears that our adversaries are less than sophisticated or knowledgeable in enough

areas of expertise to accomplish there objectives but as we say in the south

"even a blind hog finds an acorn now and again", and remember loose lips sink ships

I am glad that many have been very aware and have kept information vague

or of common scientific information.

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so... are the backup generators for N. plants EMP proof ? i sure hope so...

 

Rayz,

They should be but I don't know. Even if the EMP doesn't get them, they still need fuel every 3 to 7 days. Fuel that needs to be trucked in by vehicles that were not harmed by the EMP with fuel everybody else wants over roads with no operational traffic control and possibly in winter on snow covered roads with no snow removal. For active plants see http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf41.html.

 

All plants, active and inactive, are shown at

post-6-13851497793901_thumb.jpg

 

Remember even the inactive plants are dangerous if they still have fuel rods in the spent rod pools.

 

The possibility of losing the grid was a black swan for decades. It shouldn't be now but the expense of fixing the problem is high and no politician wants to spend today's money on tomorrow's problem that may never come.

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Rayz,

 

Remember even the inactive plants are dangerous if they still have fuel rods in the spent rod pools.

 

 

After a bit of a discussion on a PM I think this could bear expanding on. An active reactor is relatively safe from grid down because upon loss of electricity, the reactor will SCRAM. Since some time in the early 1990's, ALL American reactors are designed such that loss of power results in the control rods falling into the pile and halting the reaction. Still some radioactivity remains and handling is a chore but this is the method used to change fuel rods and the reactor is 'safed'. Electromagnets hold the control rods out of the pile, the rods are moved in and out of the pile to regulate the reaction by physically moving the electromagnetic assemblies. If power goes off, the magnets de-energize and the control rods drop fully into the pile, causing complete cessation of the reaction.

 

The problem is the spent fuel rods. They are no longer in the reactor and are no longer controlled by the control rods. Large pools of water house these fuel rods in the "spent fuel rod pools" until they can be taken to a safe disposal area. The problem is that for political reasons, the transport and disposal of spent fuel is delayed or prohibited. So the rods sit in their pools, even at decommissioned plants. The cooling pumps circulate cooling water and everybody is happy. AS LONG AS THE GRID IS UP! Take away power for a time long enough to run the backup systems out of fuel and the water just sits on the rods and heats. It heats to a super heated steam state and the water begins to break down into Hydrogen and Oxygen. Then the fuel rods boil off enough water to be exposed to the air and catch fire - yes, the fuel rods are flammable if heated hot enough. At this point, you have radioactive smoke, poisonous/radioactive vapors, Hydrogen gas, Oxygen and, just for giggles and grins, open flame. The result is predictable and spectacular.

What looks like a cap being blown off at about 7 seconds or at 21 seconds is not a physical thing. That is the shock wave of the blast compressing air into visibility! If that wave hit you, it might as well be a locomotive but it is just air.

 

The key is that this can happen at "inactive" plants if there are fuel rods in the spent rod pools and the odds are very good that there are. Political Correctness prevents us from properly disposing of these ticking time bombs. Ignoramuses who would rather score political points than deal with the issue are putting thousands at risk at these 'decommissioned' plants.

 

This is the same government that will save me when TSHTF. I feel MUCH better now.

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Guys, I have to admit my wife was still a little leery about this whole disaster prep process until she saw a report on the evening news about the possible side effects of solar flares and the resulting losses. I was surprised when I got home from work yesterday and the first words to come out my wife's mouth are, "What are we going to do if the country experiences a Carrington Event? Do you have a list for THAT?"

 

I joked with her that I thought a Carrington Event was something that happened on that old TV show "Dynasty" (no, she didn't watch enough TV as a young woman to get that reference either). Anyway, I was happy to share this breakthrough moment with my wife. Now I am going to direct her to this thread for starters.

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That vid is nuts! If what happened in Japan doesn't ring some alarm bells I don't know what will.

A Carrington event would be even worse than a terrorist attack because it would affect the whole world.

 

It would literally be TEOTWAWKI.

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Crap! Thanks Capt Bart for shattering my illusions of security and safety I'm sitting almost dead center between three reactors, looks like I'm hoofing it to the north west as far and as fast as my feet will carry me.

 

Any smart people (Ahem, Capt Bart) have any ideas of how it long it would take these fuel rods to go all explody if the grid is down? As in, if coolant circulation stopped?

 

I think for my planning purposes I'll just play it by the worst case scenario, the grid goes down and I start counting down from there to figure out how long until I'm taking a gamma-bath.

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