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femvet59

Iran & OIl

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Ahh Israel ok im slightly wrong Israel is a wild card. More so then north Korea or any other country in the world. Let us not forget Israel has assassinated their own leaders for not doing what was thought to be in their best interest.

 

i would not f-k with them at all. there enemies may hate them severley and 10% of Muslims may believe in trua jahad, but israel is one of the few nations that will literally fight to the death of last man standing.

 

even the modern era baghdad civilian was not as active in fighting the "infadel" as we (or saddam) once thought. i do not think many of these arabs are as hungry for violence as they once were but i would expect israel to fight at any and all costs.

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If you dont mind me asking, where is it that gas is 4.50$ a gallon?

 

must be LA or NYC. nowhere in SE is that high. i think the station next to the rental car return at airport is under $4 and they are usually the highest around b/c you have no choice to refill the tank and most folks expense for business.

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Just recently China's leader/president/whatever the hell he is, told his Naval brass that if the U.S. or Israel attack or invade Iran that to expect to go to war with the U.S. We are seriously poking at a hornets nest right now with all this war mongering.

 

Why we are even involved with any of this will never make any sense to me.

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Jace..

JMHO

China will not go to war..too much to lose.

It can not proffit from it.Only piss everyone off and South Korea would move so would Japan and the Phillipines would not just stand by.

Edited by 101matt

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If china goes to war it's a gamble. It would take a significant victory to reach the value of our debt and we sure as hell aren't paying it back if were at war. . . ..

 

what if they traded the cost of war for mass sell of of our debt into the markets.

 

their investment loss would be cheaper than capial cost of war and they do not have anyone die. and we're f***ed

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if they liquidated all of our debt at 1/4 the price or less it would cripple us imagine china selling our debt at a progressively more favorable rate. First $1 to $.95 then $1 to $.80 then $1 to $.65 and so on until they clear out most of it. As long as they sold it to anyone but the government it hits us hard.

 

we are so broke that only way we can buy it back is to issue more so if they start selling in huge chunks then we cannot buy it back.

 

further worsened by the discount that they would apply 10,20,30 cents on the dollar gives the new note holder a MUCH HIGHER yield so the only way that we can issue more is at those yield and our house of cards is over.

 

this would cripple us more than war and probably would be countered with an embargo on Chineese made goods to try and offset the pain.

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Just to keep our facts straight - China holds about 9.8% of our debt. Japan 9.6%. Americans hold the bulk of our debt.

 

It is sometimes easy to draw conclusions that are not supported by reality.

 

The reality is that it is us Americans that are screwed, blued and tatooed by our country's debt.

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Just to keep our facts straight - China holds about 9.8% of our debt. Japan 9.6%. Americans hold the bulk of our debt.

 

It is sometimes easy to draw conclusions that are not supported by reality.

 

The reality is that it is us Americans that are screwed, blued and tatooed by our country's debt.

 

China selling at discount would be very detrimintal. Same type of reaction as if the stock market too a 10% plunge.

 

Difference is that the when one party is dumping 10% by the time they have sold 2.5% the rest of the market starts selling and selling fast. Stock market does not have a 10% player for the whole thing and most publicly traded companies are capped at single member owenrship of 15-20% to get on the big boards.

 

When soveriegn debt is at historical low rates, like we are, then a sell off would create a demand for higher rates, higher rates devalue the investment value of exisitng bond holders so they are more than trigger happy and attententive to sell the monent it looks like rates are going up- not to mention they are all unhappy with low yield and the first chance at cashing in quick to buy in at higher future rates will be pursued, especially by american who can not retire or suppliment their income from saving that earn near zero yield.

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It is unlikely that China will sell at a discount. Soveriegn debt interest rates are very low and there is not a lot of room for "discounting". The real issue is that the total U.S. “sovereign debt” is too great to ever be repaid in full. Congress can’t raise enough taxes or cut enough entitlements to ever repay the existing debt.

 

Further complicating the issue is that "creative accounting" places our debt ceiling at about 14 trillion. That is almost manageable. However, that type of accounting has pretty much reached its limits. A review of our "real" debt reveals that is conservatively estimated at 75 trillion or maybe as much as 200 trillion! Clearly way beyond our ability to repay it.

 

"When those truths are uncovered, access to credit will diminish or disappear, and interest rates charged to the federal gov-co—and then to private U.S. corporations—will skyrocket. The economy will be further depressed, tax revenues will fall, and the U.S. gov-co will finally and openly default on its debts."

 

This is not a problem limited to the US. It is common to many "advanced" countries. We are on the verge of world wide chaos.

 

I am only touching the surface here. I can recommend a good article for those interested at:

 

http://adask.wordpress.com/2011/07/23/sovereign-debt-crisis-threatens-sovereigns-existence/

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It is unlikely that China will sell at a discount. Soveriegn debt interest rates are very low and there is not a lot of room for "discounting".

 

I agree with the unfunded future liability portion of the debt that you mentioned as being the true problem or ubuiquitous snowball that is building.

 

When I mentioned discounting I was tryng to say if they intentionaly sold at low prices. Meaning they could simply go to another nation, Russia, Iran, and host of others, and intentionally sell the debt below market or par value. Then the new owner gets a treasury with much higher yield and markets begin to demand more from US debt yields. Even if they flooded the market with sell order below market bids we would go into a quick spiral.

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Sounds like you guys are involved in the market. In ya'lls opinion, is it time to 'sell' everything? (no, not jk). At 55 years old, I fear I'm still too exposed at 10% bonds, 50% equities, 40% cash

Edited by MikeE

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Sounds like you guys are involved in the market. In ya'lls opinion, is it time to 'sell' everything? (no, not jk). At 55 years old, I fear I'm still too exposed at 10% bonds, 50% equities, 40% cash

 

MikeE, I will be real honest with you, I am not qualified to give advice on someone's portfolio. In fact, I am older than you :rolleyes: and have never invested in the market.

 

On the basis that you were asking a serious question I was thinking about giving a long-winded explanation. I won't. Lets just say I chose to take a different path.

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MikeE, I will be real honest with you, I am not qualified to give advice on someone's portfolio. In fact, I am older than you :rolleyes: and have never invested in the market.

 

On the basis that you were asking a serious question I was thinking about giving a long-winded explanation. I won't. Lets just say I chose to take a different path.

 

That makes you more qualified than most. LOL

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Mike its an odd quandary you are in. Risk are growing but so is profit. If you are risk adverse then yes get it out. BUt its gonna hurt to take it out. The system is stacked so that you can put it in easy enough but they want your money there to play with till the end so its hard to get out.

IF you have enough value to meet or exceed 175% of your current cost of living for the next 30 years then you are surely covered. IF that is the case get out now. If you have over 250k I would say get into a bunch of income properties. but you will need to study alot before you do that. region is very triccky.

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Sounds like you guys are involved in the market. In ya'lls opinion, is it time to 'sell' everything? (no, not jk). At 55 years old, I fear I'm still too exposed at 10% bonds, 50% equities, 40% cash

 

your allocation is the only way you will get some yield.

 

fixed income sucks and pays nothing. obummer likes this b/c it makes you depend more on SS when you age, but that is a whole different argument.

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Guys and gals don't fret. Barry will apologize to Iran and even promise not to help Isreal if Iran will back off right before the election.

Does anyone think that it is strange that Barry changed his christian first name to one which to me sounds slightly MUSLIM.

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Iran and gold. HMMMM well just a thought exercise here but lets run this further down the line and see where it goes.

 

Iran sells oil to Russia and China for hard gold.

oil prices remain high due to the "stress on the market " ( artificial btw)

Initially many investors move to precious metals as a hedge.

Iran dumps gold on market.Prices drop radically.

 

What happens next.

 

 

I would like to remind everyone that yes though gold is in production to this day it is getting much more costly to produce.Also the rate of production is low compared to stockpiled reserves 80280413 tr oz, cover the cost of oil in gold would be the same as 142,417,452,662 if it was all 24k pure( its not)

 

Iran produces 3.5mil barrels a day at peak today's spot price for oil was 109.per when I checked.

At current gold prices Iran would need just over a year of production (373 days)to equal a years worth of gold production. As gold prices would drop becuase of irans abiity to flood the market they would continue to gain more and more leverage on global gold markets.

 

 

Just saying another angle to look at in this.

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