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What emergency scenario are you prepping for?!?

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Last evening I was watching "Best Defence, Survival" on The Outdoor Channel, and they brought up an excellent point - What is the trigger for kicking in your survival plan. An example that I've previously posted ), when an unexpected vechicle is in our driveway, our "Immediate Defence" plan kicks in - no matter what we are doing.

 

The issue is that even the best Survival Plan is no good if it is not triggered in time to work for you. When the trigger point is reached, the Survival Plan must be followed (no matter what else is going on) with out exception. When one is under the stress of a bug out or survival situation it is not the best time to make life-saving decisions.

Edited by LivingGray

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My wife and I have been "preppers" or "survivalists" for all the years we've been married, as our financial circumstances have allowed. It's not an "IF" it's going to happen, it's WHEN. It might be a personal financial emergency or long-term crisis you prepare for, it might be a cataclysmic natural disaster or civil unrest.

"It" is coming whether we want it to or not, trouble will come to all of us at some point in our lives.

We actively store long-term food storage but what we NORMALLY eat, plus extra supplies to include retort packaged foods, (like MREs) some freeze-dried commodities (require a LOT of water to reconstitute and to properly digest-can be constipating and you don't want that happening in a long-term crisis)

Plan the best you can for what YOUR personal budget allows, be consistent and don't go "over-board" trying to plan for every single contingency-you DON'T have that kind of time or money for that. Time can be an ally or the infection of procrastination can hit you hard.

We were finally able to leave southern California (my native state) and moved to an area that is far less congested. A lot harsher winters, but, we don't have the crush of humanity to deal with either. Everything is a trade-off I believe. We also stock up on barter items, to include, salt/pepper individual packets, individual packets of sugar, artificial sweetener, honey, margarine, and condiments like catsup, mustard and mayo/miracle whip. They ca be had in any of the bog box stores by the case and WILL be in short supply for the majority of the population. We will not be using any ammunition for barter, that is solely for OUR purposes only. Might share some with a solid neighbor if they need it, but will come to that decision when and if needed at that time. Just remember that "desperate people DO desperate things".

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Last evening I was watching "Best Defence, Survival" on The Outdoor Channel, and they brought up an excellent point - What is the trigger for kicking in your survival plan. An example that I've previously posted ), when an unexpected vechicle is in our driveway, our "Immediate Defence" plan kicks in - no matter what we are doing.

 

The issue is that even the best Survival Plan is no good if it is not triggered in time to work for you. When the trigger point is reached, the Survival Plan must be followed (no matter what else is going on) with out exception. When one is under the stress of a bug out or survival situation it is not the best time to make life-saving decisions.

 

Excellent post. I do like Best Defense - they do make some points. The trigger is incredibly important. One of the most common causes of "landing" accidents is a pilot who decides to execute a go around and then in the middle of the missed, sees the airport and changes his mind. It very, very often doesn't work. Hit the trigger and execute the plan; period! If it wasn't needed, no harm. If it was needed you'll be very glad you followed the plan.

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Malcom,

Excellent posts, sir. Spot on right up and down the line. I also agree with bartering ammo. I have shared in a short term TSHTF (hurricane Ike) with neighbors who had a 12 Ga but no ammo AND we had gunfire in the neighborhood. I also loaned a shotgun to a neighbor who had no firearm. Probably risky, I guess, but we knew it was short term and I was unable to leave my neighbors defenseless.

 

I don't always follow my own advice - go figure.

Edited by Capt Bart

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I have a few hundred rounds of 7.5 bird shot for clays that are damn scary for any one being shot at but probably aren't going to kill anyone unless they are in the same room and even then. If I had to loan a shotgun to someone with little gun experience and leave it in there hands unsupervised I would be hesitant to give them rounds that could go then there walls, my walls and me. But then handing out guns is not really in the program of scheduled events so circumstances could dictate some firearms training to change the experience factor.

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I have a few hundred rounds of 7.5 bird shot for clays that are damn scary for any one being shot at but probably aren't going to kill anyone unless they are in the same room and even then. If I had to loan a shotgun to someone with little gun experience and leave it in there hands unsupervised I would be hesitant to give them rounds that could go then there walls, my walls and me. But then handing out guns is not really in the program of scheduled events so circumstances could dictate some firearms training to change the experience factor.

 

Just so, sir. I have boxes of 7.5 and that is what I loaned. Enough to change the nature of the encounter but not enough to kill the kid in the next room.

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This has given me a great pause for thought on what situation I am gearing up for. It's certainly civil unrest but more in the sense of that which occurred in Egypt, yet diametrically opposed in location. Here I see it not being the cities being the powder keg but the more distant, ethnically varied areas leading to general national LEO/ Military crackdown then inflaming cities. I also see this being a winter thing with very good reason.

 

The most terribly done by nationals here are certainly rural, ethnic minority populations. These poor guys generally leave their family farms at adulthood, seeking low skilled/ semi tech work in major urban centers. Every year they return home for the Chinese new year holiday and it is in my opinion that at this time the mass will get critical.

 

I don't think anyone can actually understand how "loss of face" works until they see it repeatedly for themselves. I still mis-attribute actions to poor behavior instead of reaction to loss of face. I see a grander scale loss of face for whole community segments approaching fast, unlikely to be this year but can't rule it out.

 

This will be some what like the following hypothetical: Bands of migrant workers ( yes, that is how they are referred to within their own country!! ) will return home with decreasing amounts of cash, inflation is nipping every ones butt here. Their saving targets are rising but their saving ability is decreasing. They quite literally are the reason for X% GDP growth in this country as their asking price is low but dedication and work ethic is high. Their aging parents, are now carers for their children and are still in the same paltry living conditions, yet even now they haven't the cash to change it. Even if they could afford a new house, moving back there will instantly reduce the income they know they need to properly educate their growing children to break the poverty cycle.

 

Family bonds and also community bonds within these specific groups are immensely strong. At the reunion, general talk of dis-satisfaction will eventually bring the realization that, despite doing all the right things, we still can not be the bread winning mothers and fathers that we were promised. This is a loss of face and it sure angries up the blood of the locals. At that point it will be on. For damn good reason too. These poor guys leave their homes, children and all familiar "comforts" to work usually 10-12 hour days, 25-28 days a month and only get 20 days off a year to return to see the people and things that they are working so hard for. Frankly, it's the Sh%$$iest situation you could imagine. As such you can see the collective will for change from space. TPTB sure can too, but TPTB world wide rarely have the sense to fix problems pro-actively and they are about out of bluff.

 

I reiterate, this is not likely this year but unchanged I'd sure tip next year. This year plans will begin, talk will spread. It may happen but not without a very visible catalyst. (Yes, I do know about Wukan before anyone pops that question but that isn't "visible" enough) Given the likely winter timing, I'm prepping for extended periods of cold weather without electricity, public transport and major supply line disruptions.

 

Given the actual physical parameters of homes here, heating is going to the the toughest nut. Most, myself included, are living in apartments. There is little to no ability to install wood burning devices or any fuel burning devices safely so it becomes about layers if bugging in. I'm presently located far enough away from the extended family that a cross country hike isn't out of the question but perhaps not totally wise, the timing and weather would be major considerations. I'd have to support a wife with zero wilderness experience and I can't say that my snow experience is very extensive, me no likey the cold. The positive factors include: terrain is reasonably flat and almost all is farmland, off the major roads it isn't too difficult to hitch a ride especially if you ask for a short hop, LEO is easily spotted as the flashing lights are always flashing here so that you can easily find them (yeah, I still chuckle about that one) Water sources abound in this part, most surely all need treatment. Countering the positive: I stand out, cover can be scant in stretches, LEO has maaaany friends and it's likely snowing

 

The other situations I'd also throw in are Major flooding of key river systems located near by, typhoons (several yearly occurrences) and just your good ol' fashioned electrical storms. Writing this has been possibly one of the best exercises I've done so far regarding the why and how of the worst case scenario as I see it. Lol, maybe I should start penning a book.

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In the short term I'm prepping for natural disater mostly hurricanes, and power outages from snow storms.etc. Long term would like to do some small steps towards self-sufficiency... solar power, garden, canning. I do plan on purchasing a home defence firearm and training. I'd also like to do some Red Cross type medical training.

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SinoCentric,

Look to the middle ages for inspiration. All those huge tapestries weren't there for decoration - they were there because it is IMPOSSIBLE to heat a stone dwelling! The tapestries were the insulated wall paper. A tent inside a room lined with tapestries is 3 levels of insulation and will help with the cold. High energy food and proper clothing/shelter can eliminate the need for fire but you will have to plan. Outside in the winter would be really tough. You might have fire (what is the source of fuel?) but not the really good shelter. What did the locals do there 300 years ago? That would be your key. The other thing I'd look for is a decent weather service. If you can find someone (maybe the BBC?) who gives a solid satellite view of your area, you can plan on weather. I encourage everyone to become their own weather forecaster. As a pilot I've been doing it for half a century and I'm better at it that the clowns on TV. That will let you know that you can make the trip or that the blizzard of the century would hit you half way there. Need to know stuff.

Good luck.

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SinoCentric,

Look to the middle ages for inspiration. All those huge tapestries weren't there for decoration - they were there because it is IMPOSSIBLE to heat a stone dwelling! The tapestries were the insulated wall paper. A tent inside a room lined with tapestries is 3 levels of insulation and will help with the cold. High energy food and proper clothing/shelter can eliminate the need for fire but you will have to plan. Outside in the winter would be really tough. You might have fire (what is the source of fuel?) but not the really good shelter. What did the locals do there 300 years ago? That would be your key. The other thing I'd look for is a decent weather service. If you can find someone (maybe the BBC?) who gives a solid satellite view of your area, you can plan on weather. I encourage everyone to become their own weather forecaster. As a pilot I've been doing it for half a century and I'm better at it that the clowns on TV. That will let you know that you can make the trip or that the blizzard of the century would hit you half way there. Need to know stuff.

Good luck.

 

what do you use for a weather service? TIA

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what do you use for a weather service? TIA

Femvet,

Everything I can get! OK, not helpful. Yes I check the local weather forecasts from TV. I also check with the Weather Channel and NOAA for things like pressure charts, jet stream patterns, station temperatures and trends. One of the most helpful is a thing called Mike's Weather Page at http://spaghettimodels.com/ . I went there for hurricane data and water temps in the Gulf but found he has links to EVERYTHING.

 

Then there are the 'rules of thumb' and tricks that help. For instance, in the northern hemisphere, if you stick your left arm straight out to your side and move your body until that arm is pointing (weather vane if you will) into the prevailing wind (easier in the country, cities make it hard to figure wind direction) you are facing into the low pressure center. (Left-Low) In my part of Texas, if the Low is West or South of me, it is approaching. If it is North or East, it has passed me by. Exception is tropical weather but it has its own tells.

 

Clouds start forming where the temperature equals the dew point. The lapse rate for unsaturated air is about 3 degrees C per thousand feet. If it is a hot day and the cloud base is forming low, the air is unstable (dry and wet lapse rates determine stability-no need for a dissertation, just know unstable air can be detected by a wet lapse rate higher than 3 degrees) so look for thunderstorms. If there are few or no clouds and very little build up, the air is stable so no storms. It takes about 4 to 6 thousand feet of cloud to produce rain that reaches the ground. A clue to how thick the clouds are. As the rain gets heavier, the clouds are higher - storm buildup can be indicated by increasing rain rates (weather radar uses this to determine intensity)

 

A small weather station that you check daily and record the readings will help you build an idea of how things run in your area. If my barometer is falling, the wind is out of the northeast and increasing and the surf is heavy then I have tropical weather in the Gulf. It may be headed somewhere else but I know to be on guard. I'll check my pressure charts for a better feel.

 

One of the biggest boons to meteorology came by accident. A researcher was looking for data on an area of the Pacific and discovered that British navy ships took weather readings on every watch. The lat/long sea state, wind, temp and pressure were there in all the logs of all the ships of the Royal Navy as it sailed the world. A bonanza of data for the mining. Your records will help you; you will begin to recognize patterns. When certain conditions occur, this weather is what we get. Not fool proof of course. Sometimes Mother Nature throws curve balls but it puts you head and shoulders ahead of the folks who haven't a clue.

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I have to admit at one time my prepps were geared toward Zombie attacks....but now zombies are looters and home invaders that you may see when tshtf. I am geared toward problems that last up to a few months. I can feed my wife and myself for almost a year, but I can't see myself turning my 80 year old neighbors away or maybe some family so I am hoping for short term problems. I have tried to get my family to understand that storing food is a good thing. And I pray that prepping will just be an eccentric hobby......

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I have to admit at one time my prepps were geared toward Zombie attacks....but now zombies are looters and home invaders that you may see when tshtf. I am geared toward problems that last up to a few months. I can feed my wife and myself for almost a year, but I can't see myself turning my 80 year old neighbors away or maybe some family so I am hoping for short term problems. I have tried to get my family to understand that storing food is a good thing. And I pray that prepping will just be an eccentric hobby......

 

A lot of stuff is written about sudden collapses and in a dangerous world they are possible. I suspect a much more likely event (and perhaps more deadly) is a slow collapse. Think failed state; Greece is approximately there now. The government exists and will be 'helping' but it may be the kind of help NOLA gave to its citizens after Katrina. Move into the dome and we'll take care of you. In truth, they did; they cared for their citizens but at what cost to the people there? Much better to have been among the evacuees or the communities that policed their own areas. We prep so that the decision is ours, not some mid-level government bureaucrats.

 

The decision to turn folks away is one I pray I never have to make. We do what we can with our families. We gave our children sun ovens and cookbooks for Christmas. They think they're great and they've started trying some of the whole grain receipts in the cookbooks. A small step but still, a step.

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Living in a small vt. town for the past 28yrs with the same great nelghbors I will do all I can to help. We all have gardens and ccan. I would be more concerned with roaming invaders, we are all well armed, most Vermonters are.

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Where I'm at there really are no natural disasters to worry about. We've been without electric for a few days, but that was the worst so far. I prep for being stranded short term in my car. Economic downturn where I can bug in. If something big happens, I really don't want to be here in the burbs though.

 

I think we are too close to Detroit, but not much to do about that. Our dilemma is knowing when it gets bad enough to abandon our house should rioting after some event spread our way.

 

We are also too close to a nuclear plant. That would require a bug out.

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Where I'm at there really are no natural disasters to worry about. We've been without electric for a few days, but that was the worst so far. I prep for being stranded short term in my car. Economic downturn where I can bug in. If something big happens, I really don't want to be here in the burbs though.

 

I think we are too close to Detroit, but not much to do about that. Our dilemma is knowing when it gets bad enough to abandon our house should rioting after some event spread our way.

 

We are also too close to a nuclear plant. That would require a bug out.

 

I don't want to be a 'doomsayer' here but have you ever seen the fallout map from a Yellowstone eruption or the path of the ice sheets during the last ice age? The significant weather site

( http://www.geo.msu.edu/geogmich/sig_weath_events.html )

for your area talks about the lakes having ice in June 1816 and the "white hurricane" of 1913. Then there is the dust bowl and the heat wave of 1936.

 

The problem with places like Detroit is that city dwellers in general have become divorced from the reality of nature. A 'blizzard of the century' can be fatal to the unprepared, especially in the city where the expectation is that heating will always be there in the winter. When I moved to Phoenix we had 3 "500 year' floods in 5 years. People died in the second and third floods because "it couldn't happen again so soon!" Detroit is on a river that connects two of the great lakes and often hosts rather large ships. Check out the 'Texas City Disaster of 1947' ( http://www.local1259iaff.org/disaster.html ) for what might happen. You may not have any warning at all to a major problem, natural or man made. None of the record floods in Phoenix were forecast to be that bad. A mistake in intensity and what was forecast to be a snow event becomes a record blizzard.

 

There are always natural disasters to plan for; some much larger than others. Floods, wild fires, extreme weather events - tornadoes are always possible

( http://detroit.about.com/od/peoplelifestyles/a/Tornadoes_in_Detroit_and_Southeast_Michigan.htm )

and any number of industrial accidents (are you up wind or down wind from that nuke site or chemical plant?) can all cause problems.

 

I am not trying to be argumentative or a fear monger but do not lightly dismiss the possibility of natural disasters. Just because there have been none in your recent memory, do not assume that they can not happen. That assumption was what caused the deaths of thousands in the Galveston 1900 hurricane. It was not even a particularly strong storm ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1900_Galveston_hurricane ) but thousands died because everyone knew that hurricanes could not make landfall in Galveston.

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I am prepping for a few things. CME being the first, because I know that without electricity, the S is going to HTF fast! Secondly would be civil unrest, caused by a CME. Third would be the ever impending police state...but on a brighter note, at least I know ill be ready!

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Tropical storm Irene in Vt. No had seen flooding like that since the the 40's. I had no water for around 3 days, but was

prepared because I always have water on hand. Be prepared you never know what's coming or when.

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Actually, Capt. Bart, I appreciate the weather info. I checked out those links and they're pretty cool. Perhaps I should not have made it sound like I am not prepared for weather issues. I didn't grow up in this area. Back home, weather is the basis for most conversation and extreme weather was especially exciting and there was something every year it seemed. We're ready for whatever weather MI can throw at us.

 

I am currently actively prepping for man made type disasters like food shortages, civil unrest or rioting, steeper economic decline. I'm not sure how this area would react to it. I have been seeing areas that I occasionally go up into having some flash mob activity, and our "safe" neighborhood has seen an uptick in non-violent theft. Then there's the chemical plant that had a leak a few years back. Luckily the wind was blowing it away from us as there was no warning system at the time. As for the nuclear plant, I'd have to do more reading to be sure I understood it correctly, but the sight I looked up about it put us just outside the edge of "you're toast" and well inside the line of "don't breath the air, drink the water, or eat the food on your way out". I'm not sure wind direction would make a huge difference at our range if it has an non-contained meltdown.

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Mrs.BacktoBasics,

Sounds like you're working the issues. Fortunately almost all prepping covers a multitude of scenarios. I guess I'm still reacting to the wild fires around here. That was a real black swan for me. Should not have been but I blew it! We are OK but not because of anything I'd done and that troubles me greatly. Luck is a really lousy Plan A.

I guess I focused in on the "no natural disasters" because I just got caught by one. I HATE it when I get caught by a black swan. I'm supposed to know what I'm doing. No arguments from me about your approach; sounds like you are considering the most likely scenarios first and that is all any of us can do.

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I would like to inject

 

that prepping for a economic down turn or disaster pretty much covers all the bases

 

during the depression my grand parents used lamps and candles

 

not because there was no power they could not afford it and at 1 dollar a day pay

 

a nickle was a phone call so phone call once a week it was a luxury

 

they had a garden and raised animals to augment their food supply

 

all they bought was kerosene flour and did shares on corn meal part was ground for flour

 

and split with the mill and some was kept for animal grain.

 

lard they got from slaughtering hogs and rendering the fat.

 

people made their clothes and bought shoes only one pair a year and some canned goods

 

work clothes like denim I had a picture of my grandfather wearing brown duck coveralls

 

or blue and white looked like pillow ticking kids cloths were made from flour sacks

 

they bought things but what they had was gathered over a lifetime we have thrown away more than

 

a few generations ever owned and that can be what we are facing soon the lack of money

 

will eat into our income to a point we will have barley enough to keep food on the table

 

so cable internet and phone service will be the first things to go so we can have fuel for going to

 

work and errands and even that will be done sharing a vehicle and make a day of it.

 

bicycles will be used more and this is a normal recession / depression and in extreme economic

 

depression figure there's no money only trade goods and the little cash you have will be for taxes

 

in a serious multi state disaster many people will be displaced and look for any place to go

 

abandon buildings vacant lots and YOUR LAND as they will need and want water

 

if you allow this your in trouble you will get swarmed who will feed them cloth them keep them warm

 

care for them if they are sick at first the government will distribute food and ask OUR help but they will

 

not be able to keep going and then your on the hook if your going to be an SOB do it first and best.

 

some towns will be overwhelmed look at L.A. the amount of illegals are weighting down the economy

 

and infringing on every tax payer more burden..these places will fall economically.

 

unless the disaster strikes your area you can hold on but if its in winter or overcast with bad weather

 

or ash growing seasons will be non existent so food and water storage for 6 months and even then

 

it needs to be rationed the longest growing season after 2 volcanoes many years apart to years to

 

get back to normal 14 years about around the time Stradivarius made his violins

 

the other was when Santorini exploded and it's fallout had a many year effect also

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santorini

 

Krakatoa also had an effect on weather patterns and in England a whole season was lost.

 

but read this http://www.rnw.nl/english/article/dustbowl-days-northern-europe

 

Africa and China are having big problems we have been very lucky but our luck is about to run out

 

I only say this because of normal cycles in weather but abnormal in the fact that they are lasting

 

longer and are more intense as in heat and cold and oil crude oil as if what has been bantered about

 

comes to pass gasoline prices will cause all goods to increase again we just had a 1/3 increase over

 

the last 2 years slow but steady the next will probably be a pop so if your not ready for it

 

you wont have the disposable income to start prepping and long term freeze dried and dehydrated food

 

will cost even more than now when I started 20% were under 10 bucks a can now there are few to none

 

your electric bill will rise and fuel for cars increase 25% and anything because it is all made with power

 

imagine a 25% cut in pay because that is what a 25% increase in goods seems like and is like.

 

mass migration is already occurring due to jobs I know this for a fact and it will swing like a pendulum

 

people running here and there trying to find a way to make an existence moving for work or for

 

cheaper local cost of living it will be a Chinese fire drill of economic pandemonium.

 

IMO

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Snake has got it right IMHO. Oil will spike sharply higher, has already started. with that we'll see increases in everything else.

DEPKA had very interesting article not too long ago analysing the time-table until a shooting war erupts with Iran. Their caculation based on our troop and ship movements is MAY.

There goes our "recovery". Hmmm, did anybody have one??

My husband is over 100 miles each way in a skilled nursing facility, so even if I only go to see him twice a month that's over 400 miles and how high will gasoline go???? I'm worried sick about him, can't move him, the VA won't help, so I have no choice. They do provide excellent care, he needs round-the clock, so I can be grateful for that at least.

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