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Dangerwolfe

Major SHFT: Who will survive the first round?

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Hi Folks,

 

This post is mostly for the newer folks who've not spent a lot time of time thinking through their survival strategies. Sure this info has been posted/discussed before. However, I believe it's premature to focus too much on details like the right kind of ballistic body armor, latest assault rifle or camping stove, etc.....or even packing a bug-out bag or planning a BOL without a thorough understanding what we are actually up against in a major SHFT, particularly a grid-down situ......

 

The Patriot Nurse pretty much lays it out right here. I think her assessment is accurate:

 

Who will die first:

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J42CLa5iATM

 

The Death Waves:

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=el7wje02wOY&feature=relmfu

 

Okay, you "survived" the above "happy" videos ;)

 

Now a sobering discussion on survival strategy I found very useful. This piece gives excellent food for thought:

 

http://maccabee.multiply.com/journal/item/615?&show_interstitial=1&u=%2Fjournal%2Fitem

 

Enjoy....if I can say that. Hope it helps and hope it stimulates lots of discussion.

 

Wolfe

Edited by Dangerwolfe

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Ever read the book, "Lights Out" D'wolf? Pretty interesting.

 

Also the rense read is probably very close!

 

No I have not as a matter of fact. I will see if I can find it on-line.

 

I'm not sure if a lot of folks, including many preppers really understand what we are up against with an extended grid-down situ which will inevitably be part of any really serious SHTF. Just imagine shit floating back up out of your the toilet into your house because the sewage pumps don't work, you've got no running water available to clean it.....just insanity.

 

It seems so much energy goes into defense, guns ammo and what have you, and while yes that's also hugely important disease and starvation will kill by far the most.

 

Eventually all the stocked supplies are going to run out for those who survive that includes modern gunpowder, etc. In short, nothing factory-made will be readily available after a year or so, two at tops.

 

For example, someone will need to know how to suture because there will simply be no butterfly bandages, superglue, tape or what have you available....

 

That's what I mean when I say we will could go back to mostly 1850's technology pretty quick. It's probably going to take most survivors at least a season or two of mistakes to learn to grow enough food to eat.....just sayin'

 

Wolfe

Edited by Dangerwolfe

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No I have not as a matter of fact. I will see if I can find it on-line.

 

I'm not sure if a lot of folks, including many preppers really understand what we are up against with an extended grid-down situ which will inevitably be part of any really serious SHTF. Just imagine shit floating back up out of your the toilet into your house because the sewage pumps don't work, you've got no running water available to clean it.....just insanity.

 

It seems so much energy goes into defense, guns ammo and what have you, and while yes that's also hugely important disease and starvation will kill by far the most.

 

Eventually all the stocked supplies are going to run out for those who survive that includes modern gunpowder, etc. In short, nothing factory-made will be readily available after a year or so, two at tops.

 

For example, someone will need to know how to suture because there will simply be no butterfly bandages, superglue, tape or what have you available....

 

That's what I mean when I say we will could go back to mostly 1850's technology pretty quick. It's probably going to take most survivors at least a season or two of mistakes to learn to grow enough food to eat.....just sayin'

 

Wolfe

 

Very well said sir. One's sustainability is also dependent upon sanitization. I consider myself lucky to be married to an RN. and she to a old battlescarred 1stSGT or "topdawg" as she says occassionally.

As far as needing medical attention, I realize she isn't a surg. nurse but I'm sure knowing her as well as I know her, we'd pretty much get by in most situations. Most in my area have wells for water. Septic systems for sewage. Very rural.

I went as far as buying a Flojak hand pump for the well just incase there was no fuel for the generator. One will only make it if one has prepared well. I'd much rather have to much and not need it, than the situation arise and I'd find myself asking, "why didn't I get that when I had the chance". Albeit I do get my chops busted for over doing it regularly. By no means are we the same, but it works

well and we usually keep each other in check. We do well together and can usually finish one anothers sentences.

Usually after a lengthly explanation as to why, I'm outa the doghouse so to speak. Till the next time. B)

Edited by desert rat

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The best solution I have found to a "grid down" scenario is a battery backup system charged by solar panels. A normal house can get by with 5,000 watts AC. You use your breakers in the electrical panel to selectively direct power.

 

The solar panels recharge the batteries. No fuel is required and no noise to attract unwanted attention. This arrangement will work for 15 to 20 years without maintenance.

 

The cost can be prohibitive for many. It is in the 8 to 10 thousand range. A major investment. However, it solves the electric problem long term.

 

Configured correctly, excess charging power after the batteries are topped up, goes back into the grid and reduces your electric bill. So payback time can be significantly reduced. Of course if you need the system, payback is immediate.

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Very well said sir. One's sustainability is also dependent upon sanitization. I consider myself lucky to be married to an RN. and she to a old battlescarred 1stSGT or "topdawg" as she says occassionally.

As far as needing medical attention, I realize she isn't a surg. nurse but I'm sure knowing her as well as I know her, we'd pretty much get by in most situations. Most in my area have wells for water. Septic systems for sewage. Very rural.

I went as far as buying a Flojak hand pump for the well just incase there was no fuel for the generator. One will only make it if one has prepared well. I'd much rather have to much and not need it, than the situation arise and I'd find myself asking, "why didn't I get that when I had the chance". Albeit I do get my chops busted for over doing it regularly. By no means are we the same, but it works

well and we usually keep each other in check. We do well together and can usually finish one anothers sentences.

Usually after a lengthly explanation as to why, I'm outa the doghouse so to speak. Till the next time. B)

 

LOL! My wife is the same way; she agrees with the risks we face regarding SHTF but hates when I spend money on things not immediately needed or practical.... In other words, I'm driving the prepping efforts and she is reluctantly on board, but at least in the wagon.....

 

Sounds like you were very smart in selecting a good location to live in the event of any SHTF. We did similarly, live in a similar semi-rural location right next to the ocean and a forest with farmlands a bicycle ride away. Our town does have a population of about 10k but it's mostly retired folks that are only here 1/2 the year. I put the core population at closer to 3-5k. Too many people but here in this part of France people often have gardens, there are lots of small local farmers/producers, no immigrant laborers, etc.....they live more old school.

 

We also have a house fed by a well that supplies the drinking water. As you have done however, I really need to install a pump-jack. I was watering my garden this morning imagining trying to do the same hauling up water one bucket at a time........ I will check out the flowjack.....our water is only about 2.5 meters down so don't need anything too fancy. I'd love to drive a well right under the kitchen sink and install a pump jack right their "old school".....

 

You are extremely fortunate to have a wife with a medical skillset and especially years of practicing it! I always had an interest in medicine, took a lot of pre-med in college and am a quick study so I'm trying to gradually tool up for the basics, but no surgery beyond basic wound repair..... I will stitch up a laceration, treat a gunshot wound but am not removing anyone's appendix, etc. LOL!

 

To this end I ordered another kit from TheApprenticeDoctor.com which teaches the basics of medical exams. I already have the suture kit that is excellent. I'm also ordering some medical books from Doc Bones at Doom and Bloom.....

 

In any case, I know the town doctor personally but he has a "difficult" personality.....approaching him about prepping would be more of a risk than a benefit.....his wife is also the town gossip...... In a SHFT however, I would be able to assist him somewhat and take the load off in our local area.

 

In any case, good luck with your prepping!

 

Wolfe

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I like that Lady (THePatriotNurse) in the YouTube vids. Speaking in a very 'matter of fact' manner about this stuff, and from a perfectly valid perspective.

 

Yes, she is a really "solid" gal.....very common sense. I've learned a lot about the most common health threats we will face after SHTF, how to treat them and what to stock for them.....

 

Unfortunately for the Patriot Nurse her fiancé recently died suddenly, she was going to marry the guy in a month. His name was Paul Gomez, very well know in shooting circles as an instructor who pioneered many modern firearms defense techniques. He was a young guy:

 

 

Control is an illusion....:

 

 

Wolfe

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The best solution I have found to a "grid down" scenario is a battery backup system charged by solar panels. A normal house can get by with 5,000 watts AC. You use your breakers in the electrical panel to selectively direct power.

 

The solar panels recharge the batteries. No fuel is required and no noise to attract unwanted attention. This arrangement will work for 15 to 20 years without maintenance.

 

The cost can be prohibitive for many. It is in the 8 to 10 thousand range. A major investment. However, it solves the electric problem long term.

 

Configured correctly, excess charging power after the batteries are topped up, goes back into the grid and reduces your electric bill. So payback time can be significantly reduced. Of course if you need the system, payback is immediate.

 

Hi Rod,

 

I've thought about a similar system for years, for exactly the reason you mentioned. In my opinion, gas gens are only a very short term solution.....or a back up for solar when things are down for repairs....

 

The Achilles heel with such systems is usually the batteries which tend to have a lifespan of around 5 years. Now, I did find some batteries "stating" they will work for 10 years:

 

http://kenital.com/Solar-Batteries/View-all-products.html

 

If you've found a system that will work for 15-20yrs with no maintenance for 8-10k $ by all means please provide me the link.

 

Any advice greatly appreciated.

 

Wolfe

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lights out was good but actually more somber and more realistic one on a "grid down "scenario is the book "one second after" be warned it has no happy ending and is very depressing but very realistic in what would happen in my mind

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Hi Rod,

 

I've thought about a similar system for years, for exactly the reason you mentioned. In my opinion, gas gens are only a very short term solution.....or a back up for solar when things are down for repairs....

 

The Achilles heel with such systems is usually the batteries which tend to have a lifespan of around 5 years. Now, I did find some batteries "stating" they will work for 10 years:

 

http://kenital.com/Solar-Batteries/View-all-products.html

 

If you've found a system that will work for 15-20yrs with no maintenance for 8-10k $ by all means please provide me the link.

 

Any advice greatly appreciated.

 

Wolfe

 

Wolfe,

 

I am just getting ready to install a system for myself. One is made by SMA and works in conjunction with a standard SMA inverter system. Essentially it will keep the Sunny boy inverter operational during a power out and will pull power off the batteries at night.* With this system you can start with a small battery bank and work your way up.

 

A standard off grid type of battery backup couples the solar panels directly to a battery bank and requires a minimum battery bank size depending on the size of the solar panel system attached to it. This type of system uses a charge controller between the solar panels and the batteries to keep them up to charge. When there is excess solar that isn’t needed for battery charging, the inverter pulls power from the charge controllers to provide power to the utility grid. Outback is the premier battery backup and offgrid option and they have been doing it the longest. The outback system is going to yield slightly less power than the SMA system because the inverter efficiencies are a little lower, but the upfront cost of the Outback system will be a few thousand less.

 

http://www.sma-america.com/en_US/home.html

 

http://www.outbackpower.com/products/sinewave_inverter/grid_tie/

 

I am probably going with the Outback system. I have been told that the deep cycle batteries that go with the system will last 15 to 20 years in maintenance mode. Shorter (10 years) if you are using them on a regular basis. That still greatly exceeds what could be done with gas or propane.

 

I hope to have a system installed by the end of this October/November.

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LOL! My wife is the same way; she agrees with the risks we face regarding SHTF but hates when I spend money on things not immediately needed or practical.... In other words, I'm driving the prepping efforts and she is reluctantly on board, but at least in the wagon.....

 

Sounds like you were very smart in selecting a good location to live in the event of any SHTF. We did similarly, live in a similar semi-rural location right next to the ocean and a forest with farmlands a bicycle ride away. Our town does have a population of about 10k but it's mostly retired folks that are only here 1/2 the year. I put the core population at closer to 3-5k. Too many people but here in this part of France people often have gardens, there are lots of small local farmers/producers, no immigrant laborers, etc.....they live more old school.

 

We also have a house fed by a well that supplies the drinking water. As you have done however, I really need to install a pump-jack. I was watering my garden this morning imagining trying to do the same hauling up water one bucket at a time........ I will check out the flowjack.....our water is only about 2.5 meters down so don't need anything too fancy. I'd love to drive a well right under the kitchen sink and install a pump jack right their "old school".....

 

You are extremely fortunate to have a wife with a medical skillset and especially years of practicing it! I always had an interest in medicine, took a lot of pre-med in college and am a quick study so I'm trying to gradually tool up for the basics, but no surgery beyond basic wound repair..... I will stitch up a laceration, treat a gunshot wound but am not removing anyone's appendix, etc. LOL!

 

To this end I ordered another kit from TheApprenticeDoctor.com which teaches the basics of medical exams. I already have the suture kit that is excellent. I'm also ordering some medical books from Doc Bones at Doom and Bloom.....

 

In any case, I know the town doctor personally but he has a "difficult" personality.....approaching him about prepping would be more of a risk than a benefit.....his wife is also the town gossip...... In a SHFT however, I would be able to assist him somewhat and take the load off in our local area.

 

In any case, good luck with your prepping!

 

Wolfe

 

Here you go D'wolfe: http://flojak.com/flojak-store/pvc-pumps-flojak-original

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lights out was good but actually more somber and more realistic one on a "grid down "scenario is the book "one second after" be warned it has no happy ending and is very depressing but very realistic in what would happen in my mind

 

Thanks for contributing Wardog,

 

One second after also sounds like a good read. IMHO the only happy ending is the one you make happen.....

 

The way I see it modern life is so plush and easy, food is readily available, clean water, etc. and yet so many are still depressed and miserable. It would seem as we are meant to fight against adversity, and without it we wither away.... Our ancestors survived far worse conditions than most of us have ever faced.

 

My general motto is enjoy every precious second you have on this planet as the gift that it is....it can always get worse.

 

Hey, it's the journey that matters anyway, not the destination so don't count the old Wolfe out until the box is in the hole ;)

 

Wolfe

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Wolfe,

 

I am just getting ready to install a system for myself. One is made by SMA and works in conjunction with a standard SMA inverter system. Essentially it will keep the Sunny boy inverter operational during a power out and will pull power off the batteries at night.* With this system you can start with a small battery bank and work your way up.

 

A standard off grid type of battery backup couples the solar panels directly to a battery bank and requires a minimum battery bank size depending on the size of the solar panel system attached to it. This type of system uses a charge controller between the solar panels and the batteries to keep them up to charge. When there is excess solar that isn’t needed for battery charging, the inverter pulls power from the charge controllers to provide power to the utility grid. Outback is the premier battery backup and offgrid option and they have been doing it the longest. The outback system is going to yield slightly less power than the SMA system because the inverter efficiencies are a little lower, but the upfront cost of the Outback system will be a few thousand less.

 

http://www.sma-america.com/en_US/home.html

 

http://www.outbackpower.com/products/sinewave_inverter/grid_tie/

 

I am probably going with the Outback system. I have been told that the deep cycle batteries that go with the system will last 15 to 20 years in maintenance mode. Shorter (10 years) if you are using them on a regular basis. That still greatly exceeds what could be done with gas or propane.

 

I hope to have a system installed by the end of this October/November.

 

Much obliged Rod,

 

Wolfe

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none of us, were on THE LIST......LMAO

 

Yep, I tip a brew to that!

 

So, just how many folks DON'T fall into the 3 categories Patriot Nurse mentions, from what I've read only btw 3-5M preppers, here's one source.

 

http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/three-million-preppers-in-america-are-getting-ready-for-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it/

 

I'll be generous and add another 5 million backwoods folks, eccentrics, isolated ranchers, farmers, etc and another 5 million with access to government stocks like military personnel and V.I.P.s (read politicians and connected rich folks). So we still have about 310 MILLION completely un-prepared Americans......

 

Wolfe

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Solar..

XANTREX XW GRID TIE or OFF GRID POWER SYSTEM

 

If and when you do have the MONEY(lord please?) this is the company..

http://www.backwoodssolar.com/

 

I have watched them for 15 years,they are off grid themselfs and have been !!!!

 

The system you want can be quoted and they will teach you the basics..

 

''3 categories Patriot Nurse mentions"..I work in one of them and it wont be a pretty site when Meds and food run out and staff dont show up..Familys have already "DISCARDED thier Parents and Grand Parents to Nursing Homes"

 

I will stay as long as I can/But think about the ''Scavangers"who will be comming to get the "Meds''and even shelter or food .We only have 5 men that work there total.3 maintance 2 CNAs...

 

Im not saying the Nurses wont show up,but after a week and no pay...who is going to stay..let alone DEFEND the Residents???

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Sheeple just shrug it all off. I got 7 copies of Thursday Salt lake Tribune page A-15. "TAX HIKE TO FIGHT UN TAKE OVER"

 

an article about Texas. This article speaks about ,,,,wars, rumours of wars,, civil war

 

I use the term S.H.T.F.,,,, Seems to me it's in the air, looks like it ,,,,,,,,might,,,or might not hit ,,,,

 

Reading all these forums, it's like, I'm gona do this, and he's doin that, and this other guy is doin this.

 

Now, I know this isn't the place to do it, but seems to me we need to do some serious planning.

 

As for me personally, I kinda wish a H Bomb would land on my head. Be my luck the thing wouldn't go off and I'd be crippled for life.....

Edited by Littlebull

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Littlebull,

welcome to the forums, sir. It is unsettled times in which we live. We don't all agree on what will be the most likely SHTF event; it may be nothing any of us have even considered (black swan event). Still, prepping for the things we KNOW will happen (hurricanes on the coast, earthquakes in California, tornadoes on the plains, blizzards in the north, etc.) is prudence and being prepared for the known makes it easier to survive the unknown (New Madrid Earthquake for example).

 

We share our ideas in the hopes that folks may find something useful to help them. I've heard folks say things like 'I wouldn't want to survive a nuclear war' without realizing that most folks WILL survive, at least at first. I never want to be in a position in any disaster where I think that the 'lucky ones' were the ones who died immediately.

 

As for planning, by all means plan for your own survival. Just be careful to never break any laws (it is tough to prep and survive from a jail cell). Among the few things that are forbidden on this site is committing conspiracy. While I collect conspiracy theories as a hobby (it is fun) conspiring to break the law is a crime unto itself and we don't do that.

 

Again, welcome sir. View the boards and enjoy. We are all enriched by others' opinions and questions.

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“The trouble ain't that there is too many fools, but that the lightning ain't distributed right.”At least we are all trying to do something usefull,not hurting anybody,enjoying what we do,and in the process,getting ready for some situations that may or not come on,but I remenber that I was the only crazy SOB on the block

baking bread,bisquits and cornbread during Andrew in 92,hot coffee and cigars on my front porch, while watching fools running around for bread and ice,lets not forget the .45.

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New Madrid Fault

 

Did you know it flowed backwards a while after the last Earthquake

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1812_New_Madrid_earthquake

 

My dad would always talk about this during planting season

 

 

 

Here in STL most of the steeple are to stupid to be concerned about this except for a few weeks every other year or two when an "expert" says that we are at a higher risk for some reason or another. For folks like me it is a huge thought in my prep,as I will have to deal with both the Missouri and Mississippi rivers as well as the Meramec and a large number of tributaries and their fallen bridges should a large earthquake occur.

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