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What Percentage will make it?

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Snake,

 

Just as a point of interest

While at work today, as part of my usual function, I was working on a laptop belonging to one of these major investment broker types. The kinda Broker that wont talk to ya unless you have like $40million.

Anyway, I was sitting off to the side repairing the laptop, he was on the phone with an investor, giving suggestions about this and that, and which accounts to shift money to/from and so on. Towards the end of the call, it got more casual and the broker guy said " ... I think we can expect a total collpase within the next few months. "

 

Navy, I appreciate you passing along that little piece of information. My belief is that a severe economic downturn is the most probable of all scenarios. I have read a number of economists estimating a one-in-five chance of this type of collapse for each of the next three to five years. Lord knows what the scope of that might mean.

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Initially, I would estimate around 15% or less, say in the first 90 days.And that only due to the frail and elderly, who would run out of life maintenance medications such as insulin or heart meds.

As the event drags on, if no extraordinary aid from overseas etc, the rate of demise would escalate as local sources of food and medicine, or any supplies really, decline below the threshold needed to support the masses. Transportation will be the key. If there is no widespread transportation, I expect there could be over 50% casualty rate in the first 12 months. Could be earlier depending on a severe winter for those in cold country.

 

Each year, the reduction in survivors would slow, but not stop, until a stable population matches the available resources.

 

Even among hard core survivalists and preppers, reality will take toll, as it gets harder and harder to make it. Surviving the possible anarchy becomes harder than surviving the causal event itself. Pockets of civilization will be at odds with looter gangs, which could reduce those who otherwise may have survived.

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The thing is that location in this scenario will prove key. Those in cities, die. 11 million, or 4 million or, even 100,000 people can not live in one place without a transportation infrastructure. It can not be done! Those in the farming communities in places like California that depend on irrigation don't make it either. Grid down, water stops and when the recovery teams finally get there, they find the dessicated bodies. If this is your scenario (and I think it is highly probably, by the way) then do a realistic, no optimism allowed, view of where you live and what you need to survive. Not just water but also sewage (most preppers forget that). I think we can do better than 25 million, but we are not going to be in the 100 million range. If the trigger is a very virulent disease, we may not keep as many as 25 million.

 

Hi Captain, hope you are doing well.

 

Agreed, location really counts to survive any SHTF situ. The question "how many will make it" is a bit vague with out specifying the scenario. Therefore, I just answered for the most likely worst-case of an extended grid-down. What kind of death toll could happen but not necessarily will happen.

 

No doubt the world will face some big challenges, perhaps even in our lifetimes. However, IMHO isolated calamities are far more likely than a truly global, or even trans-national SHTF. Even during civil wars, plauges, etc. large areas little affected by the catastrophe can and do remain.....

 

Take Lincoln's war against the Confederacy, it killed 2% of the USA/CSA population, quite a number of folks but not like 50%, etc. A modern "conventional" US Civil war probably will not be limited to North v/s South but have 3 or more players.....a breakup of the USA into 3, 4 or more smaller countries. In this scenario I'd say the overall death toll would be more like 25% of the US but that's just wild speculation.

 

Wolfe

Edited by Dangerwolfe

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What makes you think that you are in that percentage that is going to survived,food,water,ammo,guns

books,army training,how do you do the math?.

Every friday we have a Army group session,one in our group commited suicide,a great survivalist,ready all the time type of guy,I wonder what event in life, he fail to prepared for.

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What makes you think that you are in that percentage that is going to survived,food,water,ammo,guns

books,army training,how do you do the math?.

Every friday we have a Army group session,one in our group commited suicide,a great survivalist,ready all the time type of guy,I wonder what event in life, he fail to prepared for.

 

Sorry if any of us gave you the idea that survival is guaranteed just because you prepared for it.

 

Any or all of us may possibly may NOT survive! But if I do not- it won't be for lack of me trying my absolute best for me and mine!

 

And if I do survive, it might just be that God isn't done with me yet. Just like the old saying: If you want to hear God laugh - tell him your plans!

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The thing is that location in this scenario will prove key. Those in cities, die. 11 million, or 4 million or, even 100,000 people can not live in one place without a transportation infrastructure. It can not be done! Those in the farming communities in places like California that depend on irrigation don't make it either. Grid down, water stops and when the recovery teams finally get there, they find the dessicated bodies. If this is your scenario (and I think it is highly probably, by the way) then do a realistic, no optimism allowed, view of where you live and what you need to survive. Not just water but also sewage (most preppers forget that). I think we can do better than 25 million, but we are not going to be in the 100 million range. If the trigger is a very virulent disease, we may not keep as many as 25 million.

 

 

I find myself agreeing with Capt.Bart again..

 

Look at the move on the Highways leading north before the recent storm/a semi controled move...

 

NOW...........can you see people moving with out being warned????and TSHTF...Panic...

Major roads cloged/cars and trucks with out fuel...you will be forced to WALK.............

 

Yep just thinking about NO possible way to get rid of the "Daily Waste" of the citys is scary...Pandemic...

 

 

Look, just to say thats its possible is scary enough but when you facter in the "Whole picture" of what CAN effect us ....Shit,Im more than sure..it going to happen...

 

Major house of CARDS..............

 

Isreal ...it MOVES...........before election...

 

Every Sect/unites against them and the US.....who is your neighbor???

 

will we respond to the LOCAL effects that will happen??....

 

 

Oh WAIT...Im must be dreaming ..No one would ever think that we could be hit here in America..

JMO...PUNKS and Cowards always respond to somebody being "WEAK"...on a local scale and on the Global scale..

 

I have never Prayed so much for Guidance in my entire life...Im Concerned...

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What makes you think that you are in that percentage that is going to survived,food,water,ammo,guns

books,army training,how do you do the math?.

Every friday we have a Army group session,one in our group commited suicide,a great survivalist,ready all the time type of guy,I wonder what event in life, he fail to prepared for.

RTG,

From my experience, most folks don't "kill" themselves; they act to end the pain. When it hurts more than you can tolerate, you stop the pain by any means necessary. There was a time when I was suicidal. I lived because my bride came home 15 minutes early so, instead of 'stopping the pain' I unloaded groceries. It may seem like a 'cowards way out' but you MUST have a reason to live that is more important than the pain. For me, it was my bride; lacking her I would have died 37 years ago by my own hand AND it would have appeared to be an accident.

 

Into every life, pain enters. It is tolerable if you have a reason to live through it. Whether it is the loss of a loved one, an injury, or TEOTWAWKI without a reason, we don't make it through the tough spots.

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I think a large percentage will choose to "end the pain", it is an option I will never choose. When I was 20 one of my best friends chose that route. After seeing the aftermath I will endure.

 

Capt., I for one among many am glad you didn't leave us early. Your advice is a steadying force. I also think our brides have a lot in common, they both saved us from ourselves. I thank god for mine everyday.

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