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What Percentage will make it?

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It's looking like 50% is the winner(as called by jcms).

 

New direction: Taking into consideration that perps by no means guaranty survival, and that each person has different skills,levels of preps....etc.;

 

What percentage of those who consider themselves Preppers WILL make it? Just your opinion. What do you THINK?

about the same 50% i figure most wil be lost to raiders...

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What percentage of those who consider themselves Preppers WILL make it? Just your opinion. What do you THINK?

 

While preps have been made, many may fail to recognize a SHTF scenario (delaying evacuation for example)

but i think 50% is a bit on the low side of who WILL make it, simply because those who consider themselves prepers 'should' be more aware.

i think 70% of Prepers would make it.

Edited by NavyVet_77

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Please understand that because I'm a Kentuckian I'm somewhat biased as to what I believe will be the population impacts from the SHTF event.

 

I believe that when the SHTF the large population centers of this country will be decimated. I wouldn't be surprised to see upwards of 75% - 80% population reduction within 3 months or less. The suburban and rural (i.e. farmland) areas around the large cities will probably suffer around a 50% loss mostly due to the refugees from the cities. I would expext a mass exodus of refugees from the Northeast all migrating down the eastern seaboard to the Southwest. Unfortunately, there is going to be a huge influx (I mean millions) of people coming from all directions into Texas. The Lonestar State is generally considered warmer, has a lot of room and has a reputation. It'll be a natural magnet for refugees.

 

On the other hand, a whole lot of people in the USA see Kentucky as being a backward state filled with rednecks, ridgerunners, and close cousins. It's a fable that those of us who are Kentuckians have more or less encouraged. I believe that after the SHTF the majority of refugees will actually bypass Kentucky because they believe there is nothing here for them. Kentucky is also blessed to have West Virginia, Virginia, Indiana, Illinois, Missouri, Tennessee, and Ohio as buffer states around it. It is because of the incorrect assumption that we are backwards and because we have buffered borders that I believe Kentucky may only see a 20 - 25% loss of population.

 

Of course, this is a biased opinion. The only fact is that Kentucky has the greatest college basketball program in the country - Go Cats!

 

Fair winds y'all.

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After reading the posts, I personally feel that the percentage of people who will survive depends on where they live and how well they have prepped. I think the rural areas will survive better. Urban areas will die off quickly when the food, gas and water runs out. I think that only one out of ten will actually be alive 10 years after it happens, The seriously ill and injured will go first, then the cronically ill second (no meds, no life), after that disease, injuries, and age will get a large precentage. In a survival situation a simple infection can kill the weak and some of the fit. So in my opinion, only one in ten will make it and those are the ones who have prepped, know how to grow crops, can, raise and butcher livestock, know homeopathic medicine, are well versed in aspects in emergency medicine, and basically have their shit together will survive. All the ammo, guns, food, and preps won't help you if you get pneumonia, or an infected cut. Just my opinion, and I hope I am wrong...

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Infected cuts scare me most. Until I moved to Alabama, nothing ever "got under my skin". Now if I get bitten by an ant I have a sore there for three weeks! Still need more antibiotics and wound cleaning supplies.

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I work in a large hospital in a large urban city in the south. We discuss these topics often. I can tell you from our discussions, including doctors, if something really bad happens we WON"T be there. You need to increase your medical supplies as you do your food and ammo. Take a first aid class, talk to your doctor and get extra meds and antibiotics but above all be prepared for no health care or very little, most likely government supplied. Our families come first.

 

Renee, Welcome. I think you hit on something that most of us overlook. Everyone has family and loved ones. So when shtf and you look into historical occasions what happens. Nurses stop working and go home. Doctors as well. Most everyone will head home to family. Police/firefighters tend to dwindle. But what of the military? will some of them be headed home? and if so done you think some of the military hardware go with them? maybe some of you ex-military could offer an opinion.

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But what of the military? will some of them be headed home? and if so done you think some of the military hardware go with them? maybe some of you ex-military could offer an opinion.

 

It truely depends on what happened. But IMO, most SHTF scenarios wont be bad enuf to justify going AWOL. But for TEOTWAWKI, im sure we could expect to see a large percentage of the Armed Forces desolve. And yes, alot of hardware would find its way home as well.

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It is already happening the gangs want experienced military so those without records are going in

and stealing equipment etc.

 

it is known just like the fort hood guy they know and they want it to go away but it's going to bite them

in the azz just like F&F but the funny part is no one has been fired for F&F it is laughable.

 

police departments have MEMBERS in them in the jails and on the streets I was watching the closer or one of those and the Asian officer "was" a gang member but turned his life around {thats funny since it's a life sentence you don't have a choice} few make it out and as the gangs spread few places to hide for

ex members.

 

there are members of gangs working in all areas of employment even the highest security levels

we got bats in our belfry boys and girls and you might work with one and not know it.

the prison system is riddled with them and guards are being arrested all the time but if they can they cover it up.

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I must agree with Renee about family first. I am a Emergency Room Rn and it gets as bad as everyone thinks it will get, I will put my family first. My family and friends are first and I will do my best to keep them healthy, safe and protected. Everyone who is a prepper, survivalist or whatever they call themselves now should get trained in advanced medical care. I know some groups have a designated "medic" but what if that person doesn't make it? Who will take over, who will take care of the rest? What if the "medic" gets wounded or injured while out gathering wood, finding food, crossing a stream, helping someone else etc. As an emergency room nurse, I always wonder why a person shows up at the ER with a dishrag wrapped around a cut, an unsplinted fracture etc and the people with them did not help them in any way. How many times have some of you come upon a medical emergency and there is always someone who is running around asking for someone to do something? So, I know that you don't want to hear that we won't be there for you if SHTF, we will be with our family and friends keeping them safe. So all of you should get trained in advanced medical training, get all the advanced medical equipment etc. Good Luck

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A major SHFT cause by threats like pandemics, etc. would most likely include a "grid-down" situ.

 

If the grid goes down, after the first 6 months and supplies run low or are exhausted for most, we can turn the clock back to about 1850 technologically. Realistically, it will take a decade or more to blackstart modern technologies on any kind of mass scale, including oil/fuel production which drives the entire transportation/farming/communications network, etc.....why? Because those that operate and maintain the grid and other infrastructures will probably be dead or shooting each other over a can of beans.

 

So, what was the US population in 1850? 23,191,876. Note, the US controlled all of the current continental US at this time but we did not own Alaska. Let's just call it 25M to include the American Natives.

 

http://www.census.gov/prod/www/abs/decennial/1850.html

 

What is the population today? 313,847,465 (July 2011 est.) We can say perhaps 325M including the illegal immigrants.

 

http://www.indexmundi.com/united_states/demographics_profile.html

 

Okay so 325 - 25 = 300M plus people.

 

I just cannot see how we can support an extra 300M people on farming, technology and medicines from 1850.

 

Therefore, IMHO I think a 90% plus die-off could easily happen in an extended, total grid-down SHFT.

 

I would estimate 10% in the first few weeks, followed by another 50% over the next few months with the rest tapering off over a year or two....

 

Wolfe

Edited by Dangerwolfe

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Due to the mentality of most humans on this planet my guesstimate would be in the 60 to 70 percent range.The ultimate value of life depends upon awareness and the power of contemplation rather than upon mere survival.

 

Read more at http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/keywords/survival.html#qjqs3QoHZmkhTi8G.99

Ask any 10 preppers what they are prepping for and you'll get at least 6 different answers.

Shtf or Teotwawki most believe a large number of lives will be lost.

 

In this thread I am not asking for what you think will happen, only what percentage of the world population will perish do to whatever "happening" occurs.

 

I would guess in the scenario I think most likely that from 30 to 50% of the worlds population would be lost.

 

What do you think?

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I work in a large hospital in a large urban city in the south. We discuss these topics often. I can tell you from our discussions, including doctors, if something really bad happens we WON"T be there. You need to increase your medical supplies as you do your food and ammo. Take a first aid class, talk to your doctor and get extra meds and antibiotics but above all be prepared for no health care or very little, most likely government supplied. Our families come first.

 

HMS....is also correct....

 

Ok Im saying "TOLD you so''..As a CNA who has worked on the FLOORS and in the ER in both local Hospitals I will say that everyone will RUN...Doctors wont show up,thier little "Almost Doctors" wont have a clue..The Charge Nurses will try to control what they can untill Management says "SEEYA"' and they will..

 

The Nursing Home where I now work has less than 75 residents...and NO PLan....Not enough food to last a complete week..or fuel to run the Generator for more than 5 days..

 

Familys have abandoned most of the poeple I take care of already and wont show up if TSHTF.....

 

It wont be pretty...JMO....

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A major SHFT cause by threats like pandemics, etc. would most likely include a "grid-down" situ.

 

Okay so 325 - 25 = 300M plus people.

 

I just cannot see how we can support an extra 300M people on farming, technology and medicines from 1850.

 

Therefore, IMHO I think a 90% plus die-off could easily happen in an extended, total grid-down SHFT.

 

I would estimate 10% in the first few weeks, followed by another 50% over the next few months with the rest tapering off over a year or two....

 

Wolfe

The thing is that location in this scenario will prove key. Those in cities, die. 11 million, or 4 million or, even 100,000 people can not live in one place without a transportation infrastructure. It can not be done! Those in the farming communities in places like California that depend on irrigation don't make it either. Grid down, water stops and when the recovery teams finally get there, they find the dessicated bodies. If this is your scenario (and I think it is highly probably, by the way) then do a realistic, no optimism allowed, view of where you live and what you need to survive. Not just water but also sewage (most preppers forget that). I think we can do better than 25 million, but we are not going to be in the 100 million range. If the trigger is a very virulent disease, we may not keep as many as 25 million.

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Disease worries me most too. In the past(black plague,spanish flu,etc.) there were FAR fewer people, with FAR slower transport. That means the disease will spread easier and faster. Now more live in cities than the country too. Most couldn't feed them selves without a plague. And we are over due for a pandemic.

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I agree with most of the posts

 

I cannot stress enough the domino principle where one event leads to another it can be gradual or

happen rapidly.

 

economy slides = cuts in services and delinquent payment of utilities, infrastructure declines.

 

Health care is less available or too expensive and people start dying {people that have key jobs}

 

government can no longer pay their work force or citizens riots and bank runs cities being burned and looted.

curfew's will be put in place area by area.

 

Out break of cholera, Dysentery, typhoid and others no county spraying St. Louis encephalitis, west Nile etc.

 

people need water so they will congregate and die in on or near water water supply is corrupted.

 

all forms of communication are taken over as they crash from lack of funds and dangerous surroundings {cities}

 

All utilities will have suffered intermittent disruptions during all of these previous events will now be

controlled by the government. trying to maintain the grid system.

any existential parts of the any system will not be repaired or replaced {if your power, phone gas or water line

goes down too bad.

and government will have charge of them also people who think they can ride it out may be brought in by

force and work. {ever heard the old saying chained to his work} you might be if your in key infrastructure.

 

All during this military, national guard police and ex officers of the same will be PRESSED into service

to maintain order those areas that do not comply will be raised to the ground.could be a few blocks

could be a whole neighborhood.

 

Crime will run rampant black marketing of goods and unseemly activities will be the only source

of income or barter.

 

public executions {firing squads} of looters and gangs} either by home grown vigilantes or legal forces

will happen.

 

deforestation of areas for wood to cook heat and have clear ground will be part of a mass die off of animals

and lack of wild food this will dry the land {no convection} not even dew...no insects edible ones except

flies and mosquitoes maybe locust {bright colored ones are possibly poison}

crickets are edible and you can raise thousands in weeks {more than you can eat} in a few casket size boxes.

If you have a breeding hutch already.

 

there are 45 murders per day as of now increase that by 10 times like in Mexico 9,000 in one year and they are

still considered a civilized country {go figure} but they have jobs and sell product so all is OK nothing to see here.

 

in between each paragraph is a dozen I did not mention and their unintended consequences

there may come a time soon where the inmates may be released and those too dangerous may NOT.

but a wave of insanity would follow Houston has released criminals in the past it is nothing new

and they have refused intake of criminals due to lack of space.

 

Doctors and nurses and many other fields will be surprised by a knock at the door and a heard of

folks with guns to take you to work water treatment radio TV sewer power and if your in the reserves

they got you by the b@lls.

 

door to door searches for escapee's or any other reason they can come up with hoarding is a crime

under emergency rules most people do not know that I would say something very provocative but

I won't because it is so charged just thinking about it I hear static crackling in the air.it happened

during the clinto n years and a lot of people in the north west were upset but they caved and I will

say no more and it seems to come to mind now because of NOVEMBER....

 

I could tell you but then I would have to .........

 

so much has happened in the states over the years and as long as the money TAP stays on we can

rest easy that it will return to normal but a blip in that could cause GLOBAL catastrophe in a day.

and the Bible has a verse.

Revelation 18:17For in one hour so great riches is come to nought. And every shipmaster, and all the company in ships, and sailors, and as many as trade by sea, stood afar off,

 

in the context of the rest of information given we assume that Babylon is the one in Iraq very possible

but the world wide crash has it's merit an argument was created and NEW York was considered to be the New

Babylon it is very difficult to follow a lot of history bible verses some old writings and the Babylon spoken about in Revelation was west of the Euphrates river Babylon is east of the river.

All very technical and involved and some Bible scholars and non Christian historians try to fit or shoe horn in

something that may or may not be there.

 

I try to use some common sense nations and powers fall it is a fact Christian or not your in

trouble if it happens in your day I am Christian and a true believer and I know many are not

that does not discount the facts that all nations like men die even our own money has had

numerous changes,

Natural disasters and pandemics have changed the course of history.

those of you who do not concede that things change are doomed to the OH Sh*t factor

throughout your life if thats they way you want to play it, it's a free country go for it.

This is life NO DO OVERS it is what it is.

 

I am one of those that invest in Coke and Pepsi, condoms and diapers, food and toilet paper.

prepare for the future and live for now it is not one or the other to me it is just good sense.

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What event are we talking about?,What are we supposed to survived?,Nuclear,Famine,Diseases,Natural,or the Human Predetor kind,that we face everyday.We all know that facing something major alone,you will be dead,only a community will survived,and history will tell that the earliest communities where form around or

near water,at the source or by the mouth of the river,take your choice,because nobody has enough water to survived that long,and the Human Predetor will come looking for it,like a movie,so at least get yourself a

desalting unit,waterstill,nice well and lots of ammo.

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Snake,

 

Just as a point of interest

While at work today, as part of my usual function, I was working on a laptop belonging to one of these major investment broker types. The kinda Broker that wont talk to ya unless you have like $40million.

Anyway, I was sitting off to the side repairing the laptop, he was on the phone with an investor, giving suggestions about this and that, and which accounts to shift money to/from and so on. Towards the end of the call, it got more casual and the broker guy said " ... I think we can expect a total collpase within the next few months. "

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Snake,

 

Just as a point of interest

While at work today, as part of my usual function, I was working on a laptop belonging to one of these major investment broker types. The kinda Broker that wont talk to ya unless you have like $40million.

Anyway, I was sitting off to the side repairing the laptop, he was on the phone with an investor, giving suggestions about this and that, and which accounts to shift money to/from and so on. Towards the end of the call, it got more casual and the broker guy said " ... I think we can expect a total collpase within the next few months. "

 

 

Watching the money...silver moved 10% last week....first move,second it goes to 50,than 100..than its gone...and everything goes nuts...JMO

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Crickets the other white meat huh. I like that idea. Got any links on the how to....Iv'e looked but yours are usually better.

 

Sheeple think French eat Snail and frogs because its yummy and classy. Such French Cuisine was born out of nothing less than neccessity.

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yea guys this is a real eye opener about the silver and NavyVet_77's catch I like to keep grounded

 

although I may jump into the foray of survivalist conversations and scenarios but I do not want to

 

get caught in the undertow of emotions and fears it can bring BUT I do have my preparations just in

 

case.

 

nobody I found a link that has a better way than I remember and looks good

 

http://skylab.org/~chugga/cricket/

 

we used to catch crickets and put them in a tight box with 1/8 inch screen in the top door we put old bread

potatoes and other scrap vegetables / leaves for them to eat no more than a handful and throw it out

and put fresh every few days.

they are noisy so opsec may dictate they are in another place but critters love crickets and a coon can do anything including almost pick a lock as I recall a normal test tube was a hundred adults that is how we sold them, FOR FISHING but I have eaten them and toasted ants grubs and others I would rather not

but if it is all I got I will deal with it

 

to eat pull the head that should also pull the gut pan fry in a bit of oil mix with cooked rice and what ever

spice / s you like try not to think about it just think of it as a rice ball.

cook the rice in some beef chicken or vegetable bullion so you can have a good flavor,

soy sauce is the greatest thing ever that and sweet and sour sauce I intend to put my

soy sauce in a sprayer to make it last and on a cricket rice ball i think it will be a hit.

 

 

I like snails they don't have much of a flavor like vonBayern mentioned garlic an butter pinch of

salt and white pepper {black pepper makes people think it snail turds.....}

the snails I ate were the giant snails about the size of a large wall nut or bigger.

 

if your near water raising worms for fishing and bait for traps to catch small vermin for bait for larger animals

 

all this info is a last ditch effort stuff everyone if it's bad will have to come up with what works for them

 

in their weather and what ever they can scrounge, like man has always done.

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Renee, Welcome. I think you hit on something that most of us overlook. Everyone has family and loved ones. So when shtf and you look into historical occasions what happens. Nurses stop working and go home. Doctors as well. Most everyone will head home to family. Police/firefighters tend to dwindle. But what of the military? will some of them be headed home? and if so done you think some of the military hardware go with them? maybe some of you ex-military could offer an opinion.

 

I can attest, as being both a police officer (albeit part-time these days) and a registered nurse, that if SHTF did happen I'm not going to be policing you or tending to your health. I've got my own worries. Good luck, lol.

 

That said, I've wondered about the military as well. I've seen a couple of Youtube videos, made by people with decent, prepper-oriented videos, that have international get home bags and so forth. In some respects, the military might be the safest bet because you would likely get at least some food and medical care. On the flip side, exactly who/what would be your commander in chief? I'd bet many of them would take flight themselves to tend to their families just as many of us would.

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