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What's the most likely weather scenario and how to prep?

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Over the next several years NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) is predicting wild Swings Between extremes for the forseable future as the global climate is unbalanced heading toward global warming causing potentialy extreme weather variations. Sorry your going to have to prep for both Thank MR. Murphy.

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Borrowing a line from "Earth Vs the Flying Saucers" - "LOOK TO YOUR SUN FOR A WARNING, LOOK TO YOUR SUN FOR A WARNING". The historical record rather strongly indicates that following a period of extreme quiet on the sun, the earth gets cold; very cold! If you are a believer in Anthropomorphic Global Warming (AGW) (I am not for a whole slew of reasons, not the least of which is some VERY bad science.) then there might be some mitigation to this cooling effect but long term, we may well be entering into a prolonged cold period.

 

Side Bar - skip if not interested, boring or you already know:

 

When the sun is quiet, it is more than just a reduced radiation at work. The solar magnetosphere collapses back toward the inner solar system allowing for an increase in cosmic radiation to reach the earth. These particles leave tracks in the earth's atmosphere - think cloud chamber photo.

post-6-13851497860745_thumb.jpg

 

See http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CCgQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fquarknet.fnal.gov%2Fresources%2FQN_CloudChamberV1_4.pdf&ei=jiRNT4aDA4iviQLfw9yxDw&usg=AFQjCNFmUf39KcbTqrIvWLDCM5rdnOD6nQ for a make your own.

 

In any event, these particle tracks form the nuclei for cloud formation, increasing the cloud cover over the entire earth. Reduced solar luminosity coupled with increased cloud cover equals a cooler earth. Note there has been no AGW, actually no warming trend of any kind, for the last 15 years. The ground truth data has disproved the politically convenient theory.

 

The problem is that "climate change" doesn't tell how an individual spot will react. The world as a whole may be getting cooler as it is this winter, while the US is having a milder than usual winter. Unfortunately, you must prep for both. Long term it will get colder unless the Sun kicks in but most solar scientist expect the next cycle (each cycle is 11 years long - we are at or near the maximum and it is REMARKABLY quiet in terms of solar activity) to be at least as quiet as this one is.

 

The easiest way to judge solar activity is sunspot count. http://spaceweather.com/glossary/sunspotplotter.htm has a historical graph for any year of interest that goes back quite a ways. Look at solar activity for the periods just before extreme cold years and you'll find a quiet sun. Check out 1 Jan 1812 and look at the sun spot counts the year before the "year without a summer". It is instructive.

 

To monitor current activity go to http://spaceweather.com and check the current state of the sun. Also a good place to watch for solar storms, Carrington events, etc. I check it daily.

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Yup Capt Bart! Last summer was amazingly light on sunspots. I was out several times observing and even with my 16" there was virtually nothing to see!

Edited by Rod

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Yup Capt Bart! Last summer was amazingly light on sunspots. I was out several times observing and even with my 16" there was virtually nothing to see!

 

I'm jealous! A 16" - Dob or equatorial? My son took my Bausch and Lomb Criterion to teach astronomy to my grandkids; I'll never see it again so I'm shopping. Too much light in Houston for big light buckets so I'm looking at something more portable. Given enough money (which I don't have!) I'd have one of the big 14" Schmidt Cassegrain. As is, I'm looking at a 10 to 12 inch Dob.

 

OK, I hijacked the thread. My apologies but I want to know. :P

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Guest kevin

ok we have astro-nerds in the house.....good. i gotta question.....is the sun going to be in the CENTER of our galaxy this year, if so could that be effecting our weather patterns? we (ne texas) haven't had a winter this year.

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I'm jealous! A 16" - Dob or equatorial? My son took my Bausch and Lomb Criterion to teach astronomy to my grandkids; I'll never see it again so I'm shopping. Too much light in Houston for big light buckets so I'm looking at something more portable. Given enough money (which I don't have!) I'd have one of the big 14" Schmidt Cassegrain. As is, I'm looking at a 10 to 12 inch Dob.

 

OK, I hijacked the thread. My apologies but I want to know. :P

 

Meade 16" f4.5 German Equatorial with two inch focuser and a 16" solar filter that is metal impregnated for natural color(Don't ask what that puppy cost!).

 

post-1736-13851497862672_thumb.jpg

 

While I don't need the apeture for light gathering when viewing the sun, it does provide resolution. I can see the edge of the sun showing prominances and sometimes the arc between two sunspots.

 

In my defense, I owned a hobby/science store so was able to get the equipment at dealer cost. Otherwise the price would have been ..... :rolleyes:

 

I always have people coming to me with good used 8" to 10" SCT's. Want me to keep you in mind?

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ok we have astro-nerds in the house.....good. i gotta question.....is the sun going to be in the CENTER of our galaxy this year, if so could that be effecting our weather patterns? we (ne texas) haven't had a winter this year.

 

Uhh...No. The center of our galaxy is a gigantic black hole. We are stuck way out on a limb of the galaxy. As a matter of fact there is some debate over whether of not we actually belong to the Milky Way Galaxy. There is evidence that we are part of another galaxy that happens to be passing through the Milky Way. Yes, it is possible that one galaxy can pass through another. The spaces between suns are ENORMOUS!

 

As far as weather patterns go, our sun provides 99% of the energy that drives the weather here on earth. So, it kind of affects it everyday. La Nina out in the Pacific Ocean is most likely the gal who stole your winter in Texas.

Edited by Rod

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Meade 16" f4.5 German Equatorial with two inch focuser and a 16" solar filter that is metal impregnated for natural color(Don't ask what that puppy cost!).

 

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While I don't need the apeture for light gathering when viewing the sun, it does provide resolution. I can see the edge of the sun showing prominances and sometimes the arc between two sunspots.

 

In my defense, I owned a hobby/science store so was able to get the equipment at dealer cost. Otherwise the price would have been ..... :rolleyes:

 

I always have people coming to me with good used 8" to 10" SCT's. Want me to keep you in mind?

 

Yes! Otherwise I may have to come live at your house! Most of my astronomy work has been radio (Think Haystack Observatory http://dragon.maxgigapop.net/twiki/bin/view/DRAGON/HaystackObservatory )

post-6-13851497864407_thumb.jpg

 

Please PM me if you get find a good deal on an 8 to 10 inch. I've been looking at a Dob for price and ease of movement but if I could get a fair SCT that'd be great.

 

Again, apologies to all for highjacking the threat but I checked with the moderator and he said that this once would be OK.:rolleyes:

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from what i'm readin you guys still think the earth is round..boy are you in for a surprise!lol, if it was round why then is it measured in square miles and cubic yards???hmmm??

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from what i'm readin you guys still think the earth is round..boy are you in for a surprise!lol, if it was round why then is it measured in square miles and cubic yards???hmmm??

 

Sorry! Can't argue with that logic! :confused:

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ok we have astro-nerds in the house.....good. i gotta question.....is the sun going to be in the CENTER of our galaxy this year, if so could that be effecting our weather patterns? we (ne texas) haven't had a winter this year.

 

Kevin,

I suspect you are getting a confused version of the Mayan Calendar 21 Dec. 2012 line.

 

http://www.astrodigital.org/astronomy/solarsystemgalaxy.html

 

The Earth never comes closer than 10 to 12 thousand light years to the galactic core.

post-6-13851497864571_thumb.jpg

 

We orbit the core (which is a super massive black hole) about every 200 to 250 million years or so. This year the earth will line up with the Galactic core on December 21st; just like it does every year, twice actually, winter and summer. It is not approaching the actual equator for the plane of the galaxy, it does line up from the point of view of the sun. Every 100 million years or so we do pass through the plane of the galaxy equator but that won't occur for another few tens of millions of years. We've done it several times in the past (15 or 16 times since the creation of the earth) but so far we're OK.

 

It is like the worry over "pole reversal". Folks confuse magnetic pole reversal with physical pole reversal. We've swapped north for south magnetic poles several times with no issues. If it happened today my compass would swap ends and that's about it. (OK, more than that but NOT TEOTWAWKI). The last time the physical poles swapped, or at least moved substantially, a planetary body about the size of Mars hit the earth a glancing blow. Incidentally, this formed the moon and melted the entire planet down to the core. Not likely to happen and not survivable if you are anywhere in the vicinity of the event.

 

The physics of these events are so far out of normal experience that folks just don't understand the forces or energies involved. The Sun's luminosity and the effect of the Solar Magnetosphere shape our climate. Weather is actually small scale stuff. It is effected by ocean temps, mountains, volcanoes, mountain building, heat island effects from cities, and a whole slew of other issues. In spite of Texas, and much of the US as well, having a mild winter, globally this has been a brutally cold year. There is some concern that the Thames may actually be frozen next year if it continues as is. That was always the AGW tool, talk about hot spots as 'proving' global warming' and ignoring the global climate data that disproved their pet theories. Unfortunately, science isn't as pure from politics and money pressure as many of us would like.

Edited by Capt Bart

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from what i'm readin you guys still think the earth is round..boy are you in for a surprise!lol, if it was round why then is it measured in square miles and cubic yards???hmmm??

 

rayz,

I actually knew a guy who did his doctoral dissertation on a math system that worked assuming a flat earth. Basically, the universe was shaped like a comma, as you moved further away from earth, you moved down the 'tail' of the comma. The math was consistent and worked! It provided a working explanation of what we saw so you couldn't 'PROVE' it wasn't that way. It was also so awkward to use that no one would ever adopt it ( Occam's Razor applies ) but it was a fun exercise in mathematics.

 

For the curious:

Occam's Razor is basically lex parsimoniae or the law of parsimony, economy or succinctness. It is applied in science and engineering to mean that given several possible answers to a question, the simplest answer is most likely the correct answer. Amazing how many times this is true.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam%27s_razor

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rayz,

I actually knew a guy who did his doctoral dissertation on a math system that worked assuming a flat earth. Basically, the universe was shaped like a comma, as you moved further away from earth, you moved down the 'tail' of the comma. The math was consistent and worked! It provided a working explanation of what we saw so you couldn't 'PROVE' it wasn't that way. It was also so awkward to use that no one would ever adopt it ( Occam's Razor applies ) but it was a fun exercise in mathematics.

 

For the curious:

Occam's Razor is basically lex parsimoniae or the law of parsimony, economy or succinctness. It is applied in science and engineering to mean that given several possible answers to a question, the simplest answer is most likely the correct answer. Amazing how many times this is true.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam%27s_razor

 

Okay, now you are just showing off! :) :) :)

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i refuse to be swayed by facts and reason..LOL:p..awesome reply to kevin captbart! oh btw any info on the thing that hit the earth an made the moon? what was it where did it go? Did they find out that that was in fact what happened?

Edited by rayz

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Your all on crack the guys who used to make maps for the Europeans had it right. Earth is the center of the universe and it's flat. If you go to far out to sea avoid the region labeled here be dragons. Of course that puts china in a parallel world because if you dig threw the earth you come out in china. Parallel in the geometry sense of the word not the time space continuum sense. Like their right below us and could invade with a big ladder.

 

Oh, so misguided! I refer you to Terry Pratchett and the Disc World Series. Everyone KNOWS the world is a disc, sits on the back of 4 elephants who are standing on the back of a Turtle that swims among the stars!

post-6-13851497864976_thumb.jpg

Some other pictures are at

http://my.opera.com/zapfod/albums/showpic.dml?album=2863112&picture=39833362

 

If you decide to read any of his stuff, read it out loud. A lot of the jokes are audible and you might miss them just reading to yourself. Still, being a MAC convert Pratchett's novel that has Death take human form and assume the name "William Door" had me in stitches. He couldn't have meant "Bill Gates" could he?

 

OK, I'm having fun. If you guys want to continue this that's cool but if we want to leave the weather topic intact I can start a new thread. If nobody minds, I'll leave things as they are.

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WAIT a minute...

 

Im soooooo confused...is it round ?Flat or egg shaped??

Capt.Bart I have an excuse to be a bit out there because of some stuff I did when I was 19 and20 but shit Capt.dont tell me you were one of the officer that stood down wind of some of those "Bush Burnings" back in the jungle???

 

Im kidding Capt. realy// :}

I have just down loaded a manuel on reading the stars for nite travel..

Soory Rick said I could high jack this one too..

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i refuse to be swayed by facts and reason..LOL:p..awesome reply to kevin captbart! oh btw any info on the thing that hit the earth an made the moon? what was it where did it go? Did they find out that that was in fact what happened?

 

rayz,

It is pretty certain that something of that sort happened. (I think so therefore it must be true!) The science points in that direction for several reasons. First the laws of motion and the conservation of momentum (a really BIG deal to physicists) fit this theory and not any of the competing theories. Second the moon is made out of mostly crust material (lighter rock) and very little core material. Third, the earth's core is too dense unless the core of "Thea" (one of the names for the impacting planet) remained trapped in the earth and it's crustal material was blown off (see above).

 

A good video is at

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IO45ZiGql8E

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IO45ZiGql8E

 

The planet didn't "go" anywhere. Earth and the moon kept it. It was one of many proto-planets during the early formation of the solar system. An alternate hypothesis (which I lean toward, actually) is that a second solar system passed through our system and there were several interactions among the planets of both systems. Uranus's extreme rotational axis tilt, Pluto's wildly eccentric orbit, the "missing" planet between Mars and Jupiter - where the asteroid belt is currently located all speak of the possibility of a "disruption" of the early Solar System.

 

To go from 'theory' to 'fact' in the scientific terms requires more work than has been done but it is looking very promising. It is a solid working theory that is probably 'true'.

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Guest kevin

thanks for the info capt. wasn't on my top ten things to worry about any way, that's all filled with the things man does control. i also believe that being able to field strip a firearm over rules any nerddom......at least i hope so......other wise my son IS sheldon.

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